Latest National Weather Service guidance and GFS/ECMWF ensemble forecasts project a warm overnight low near or above 74°F in New York City on May 19, driven by a persistent upper-level ridge fostering warm air advection and light winds that limit radiative cooling, positioning this outcome at 47.5% market-implied probability. Mid-60s bins (64-65°F, 66-67°F, 68-69°F at 19.5% each) capture model spread from potential cloud intrusions or subtle frontal timing shifts, while climatological averages hover around 57°F for mid-May at Central Park amid neutral ENSO influences supporting above-normal anomalies. No major developments in the past 48 hours, but updated model runs every 6-12 hours through May 18 will clarify steering patterns and refine trader consensus ahead of official observations.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСамая низкая температура в Нью-Йорке 19 мая?
Самая низкая температура в Нью-Йорке 19 мая?
74°F или выше 40%
66-67°F 28%
64-65°F 26%
68-69°F 21%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
19 мая 2026 г.
55°F или ниже
<1%
56-57°F
5%
58-59°F
5%
60-61°F
15%
62-63°F
14%
64-65°F
26%
66-67°F
28%
68-69°F
21%
70-71°F
18%
72-73°F
15%
74°F или выше
40%
74°F или выше 40%
66-67°F 28%
64-65°F 26%
68-69°F 21%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
19 мая 2026 г.
55°F или ниже
$5 Объем
<1%
56-57°F
$10 Объем
5%
58-59°F
$0 Объем
5%
60-61°F
$0 Объем
15%
62-63°F
$10 Объем
14%
64-65°F
$0 Объем
26%
66-67°F
$0 Объем
28%
68-69°F
$0 Объем
21%
70-71°F
$0 Объем
18%
72-73°F
$0 Объем
15%
74°F или выше
$5 Объем
40%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest National Weather Service guidance and GFS/ECMWF ensemble forecasts project a warm overnight low near or above 74°F in New York City on May 19, driven by a persistent upper-level ridge fostering warm air advection and light winds that limit radiative cooling, positioning this outcome at 47.5% market-implied probability. Mid-60s bins (64-65°F, 66-67°F, 68-69°F at 19.5% each) capture model spread from potential cloud intrusions or subtle frontal timing shifts, while climatological averages hover around 57°F for mid-May at Central Park amid neutral ENSO influences supporting above-normal anomalies. No major developments in the past 48 hours, but updated model runs every 6-12 hours through May 18 will clarify steering patterns and refine trader consensus ahead of official observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: May 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Объем
$30Дата окончания
19 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest National Weather Service guidance and GFS/ECMWF ensemble forecasts project a warm overnight low near or above 74°F in New York City on May 19, driven by a persistent upper-level ridge fostering warm air advection and light winds that limit radiative cooling, positioning this outcome at 47.5% market-implied probability. Mid-60s bins (64-65°F, 66-67°F, 68-69°F at 19.5% each) capture model spread from potential cloud intrusions or subtle frontal timing shifts, while climatological averages hover around 57°F for mid-May at Central Park amid neutral ENSO influences supporting above-normal anomalies. No major developments in the past 48 hours, but updated model runs every 6-12 hours through May 18 will clarify steering patterns and refine trader consensus ahead of official observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$30Дата окончания
19 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGALatest National Weather Service guidance and GFS/ECMWF ensemble forecasts project a warm overnight low near or above 74°F in New York City on May 19, driven by a persistent upper-level ridge fostering warm air advection and light winds that limit radiative cooling, positioning this outcome at 47.5% market-implied probability. Mid-60s bins (64-65°F, 66-67°F, 68-69°F at 19.5% each) capture model spread from potential cloud intrusions or subtle frontal timing shifts, while climatological averages hover around 57°F for mid-May at Central Park amid neutral ENSO influences supporting above-normal anomalies. No major developments in the past 48 hours, but updated model runs every 6-12 hours through May 18 will clarify steering patterns and refine trader consensus ahead of official observations.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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