National Weather Service forecasts for New York City on May 15 showed a stable overnight low near 52–53 °F, driven by mild southerly flow and clear skies that limited radiational cooling. NOAA model consensus, including the GFS and NAM runs, converged on this range with minimal spread, consistent with climatological norms for mid-May when daily lows typically average 53 °F. Traders assigned 99.8 % implied probability to the 52–53 °F bin because official observations aligned closely with these projections and no significant frontal passage or cloud-cover changes materialized. Only an unanticipated cold-air intrusion or localized measurement anomaly at Central Park could have shifted the outcome into adjacent bins, both of which carried negligible model support.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоLowest temperature in NYC on May 15?
Lowest temperature in NYC on May 15?
52-53°F 100.0%
50-51°F <1%
42-43°F <1%
41°F or below <1%
$15,260 Объем
$15,260 Объем
15 мая 2026 г.
41°F or below
<1%
42-43°F
<1%
44-45°F
<1%
46-47°F
<1%
48-49°F
<1%
50-51°F
<1%
52-53°F
100%
52-53°F 100.0%
50-51°F <1%
42-43°F <1%
41°F or below <1%
$15,260 Объем
$15,260 Объем
15 мая 2026 г.
41°F or below
$2,587 Объем
<1%
42-43°F
$410 Объем
<1%
44-45°F
$454 Объем
<1%
46-47°F
$817 Объем
<1%
48-49°F
$1,409 Объем
<1%
50-51°F
$2,473 Объем
<1%
52-53°F
$2,540 Объем
100%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.National Weather Service forecasts for New York City on May 15 showed a stable overnight low near 52–53 °F, driven by mild southerly flow and clear skies that limited radiational cooling. NOAA model consensus, including the GFS and NAM runs, converged on this range with minimal spread, consistent with climatological norms for mid-May when daily lows typically average 53 °F. Traders assigned 99.8 % implied probability to the 52–53 °F bin because official observations aligned closely with these projections and no significant frontal passage or cloud-cover changes materialized. Only an unanticipated cold-air intrusion or localized measurement anomaly at Central Park could have shifted the outcome into adjacent bins, both of which carried negligible model support.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ET
Объем
$15,260Дата окончания
15 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.National Weather Service forecasts for New York City on May 15 showed a stable overnight low near 52–53 °F, driven by mild southerly flow and clear skies that limited radiational cooling. NOAA model consensus, including the GFS and NAM runs, converged on this range with minimal spread, consistent with climatological norms for mid-May when daily lows typically average 53 °F. Traders assigned 99.8 % implied probability to the 52–53 °F bin because official observations aligned closely with these projections and no significant frontal passage or cloud-cover changes materialized. Only an unanticipated cold-air intrusion or localized measurement anomaly at Central Park could have shifted the outcome into adjacent bins, both of which carried negligible model support.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$15,260Дата окончания
15 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...National Weather Service forecasts for New York City on May 15 showed a stable overnight low near 52–53 °F, driven by mild southerly flow and clear skies that limited radiational cooling. NOAA model consensus, including the GFS and NAM runs, converged on this range with minimal spread, consistent with climatological norms for mid-May when daily lows typically average 53 °F. Traders assigned 99.8 % implied probability to the 52–53 °F bin because official observations aligned closely with these projections and no significant frontal passage or cloud-cover changes materialized. Only an unanticipated cold-air intrusion or localized measurement anomaly at Central Park could have shifted the outcome into adjacent bins, both of which carried negligible model support.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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