Recent National Weather Service ensemble guidance for New York City points to an overnight low on May 18 in the low-to-mid 60s Fahrenheit, which explains the market’s tight clustering of implied probabilities across the 60–67°F bins. Springtime temperature forecasts in the Northeast carry notable uncertainty due to variable steering patterns, with the GFS and ECMWF models showing modest spread from differences in cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and the precise timing of a weak frontal passage. Historical mid-May climatology places average NYC lows near 55°F, so current guidance reflects a warmer-than-normal pattern that could shift if overnight radiational cooling strengthens or weakens under clearer skies. The next model cycle and updated local observations will likely determine whether probabilities consolidate further around 64–65°F or spread toward adjacent ranges.