Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects short-range forecast models from ECMWF, GFS, and Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) converging on a high near 20°C for Istanbul on May 17, with ensemble spreads of ±2°C explaining the tight clustering across 19–23°C outcomes at 16–21% implied probabilities. Mid-May climatology supports this, as Istanbul's average highs hover around 21°C amid Black Sea and Marmara influences moderating temperatures via sea breezes and northerly flows, while recent days (May 13–15) saw highs of 18–22°C under variable cloudiness. Key differentiators include potential high-pressure ridging over the Balkans boosting 22–23°C chances versus lingering frontal moisture favoring 19°C; new 12z model runs expected May 16 could sharpen odds ahead of resolution based on official Istanbul station data.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСамая высокая температура в Стамбуле 17 мая?
Самая высокая температура в Стамбуле 17 мая?
21°C 26%
20°C 25%
19°C 23%
18°C 4.6%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
17 мая 2026 г.
14°C or below
1%
15°C
1%
16°C
3%
17°C
4%
18°C
5%
19°C
23%
20°C
25%
21°C
26%
22°C
5%
23°C
2%
24°C or higher
3%
21°C 26%
20°C 25%
19°C 23%
18°C 4.6%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
17 мая 2026 г.
14°C or below
$125 Объем
1%
15°C
$65 Объем
1%
16°C
$125 Объем
3%
17°C
$0 Объем
4%
18°C
$0 Объем
5%
19°C
$0 Объем
23%
20°C
$60 Объем
25%
21°C
$8 Объем
26%
22°C
$130 Объем
5%
23°C
$581 Объем
2%
24°C or higher
$104 Объем
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects short-range forecast models from ECMWF, GFS, and Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) converging on a high near 20°C for Istanbul on May 17, with ensemble spreads of ±2°C explaining the tight clustering across 19–23°C outcomes at 16–21% implied probabilities. Mid-May climatology supports this, as Istanbul's average highs hover around 21°C amid Black Sea and Marmara influences moderating temperatures via sea breezes and northerly flows, while recent days (May 13–15) saw highs of 18–22°C under variable cloudiness. Key differentiators include potential high-pressure ridging over the Balkans boosting 22–23°C chances versus lingering frontal moisture favoring 19°C; new 12z model runs expected May 16 could sharpen odds ahead of resolution based on official Istanbul station data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Объем
$1,199Дата окончания
17 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects short-range forecast models from ECMWF, GFS, and Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) converging on a high near 20°C for Istanbul on May 17, with ensemble spreads of ±2°C explaining the tight clustering across 19–23°C outcomes at 16–21% implied probabilities. Mid-May climatology supports this, as Istanbul's average highs hover around 21°C amid Black Sea and Marmara influences moderating temperatures via sea breezes and northerly flows, while recent days (May 13–15) saw highs of 18–22°C under variable cloudiness. Key differentiators include potential high-pressure ridging over the Balkans boosting 22–23°C chances versus lingering frontal moisture favoring 19°C; new 12z model runs expected May 16 could sharpen odds ahead of resolution based on official Istanbul station data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$1,199Дата окончания
17 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket reflects short-range forecast models from ECMWF, GFS, and Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) converging on a high near 20°C for Istanbul on May 17, with ensemble spreads of ±2°C explaining the tight clustering across 19–23°C outcomes at 16–21% implied probabilities. Mid-May climatology supports this, as Istanbul's average highs hover around 21°C amid Black Sea and Marmara influences moderating temperatures via sea breezes and northerly flows, while recent days (May 13–15) saw highs of 18–22°C under variable cloudiness. Key differentiators include potential high-pressure ridging over the Balkans boosting 22–23°C chances versus lingering frontal moisture favoring 19°C; new 12z model runs expected May 16 could sharpen odds ahead of resolution based on official Istanbul station data.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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