The market-implied odds strongly favor a lowest temperature of 25°C in Hong Kong on May 15, driven by official observations from the Hong Kong Observatory confirming that minimum reading under stable subtropical spring conditions. Mid-May climatology for the region typically features nighttime lows of 24–26°C amid moderate humidity and light southerly flows, with no major cooling from frontal systems or increased cloud cover in recent days. Traders have aligned on this outcome based on verified station data meeting the market’s resolution criteria, while acknowledging that minor forecast revisions or localized microclimate effects could theoretically shift the exact minimum by one degree.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоLowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 15?
25°C 99.9%
18°C или ниже <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$63,279 Объем
$63,279 Объем
18°C или ниже
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
100%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C or higher
<1%
25°C 99.9%
18°C или ниже <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$63,279 Объем
$63,279 Объем
18°C или ниже
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
100%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The market-implied odds strongly favor a lowest temperature of 25°C in Hong Kong on May 15, driven by official observations from the Hong Kong Observatory confirming that minimum reading under stable subtropical spring conditions. Mid-May climatology for the region typically features nighttime lows of 24–26°C amid moderate humidity and light southerly flows, with no major cooling from frontal systems or increased cloud cover in recent days. Traders have aligned on this outcome based on verified station data meeting the market’s resolution criteria, while acknowledging that minor forecast revisions or localized microclimate effects could theoretically shift the exact minimum by one degree.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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