Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a tight forecast ensemble for Istanbul's May 15 high temperature, with major models like those from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) projecting a peak of 23°C around 5 p.m. under mostly sunny skies, while international sources such as AccuWeather and Weather.com imply 21-22°C amid light winds and clear conditions. This clustering around 20-21°C stems from a warming trend over the past week, as southerly flows from the Marmara Sea boost daytime heating beyond early-May norms of 19-20°C, though sea breezes and urban variability could cap peaks at 20°C or push toward 22°C+. Key differentiators include model spread in afternoon cloud cover and exact station measurements (e.g., Istanbul Airport vs. city center); watch MGM updates overnight for refined guidance ahead of resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Istanbul on May 15?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 15?
21°C 33%
20°C 31%
22°C or higher 24%
19°C 13%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
15 мая 2026 г.
12°C or below
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
1%
18°C
3%
19°C
13%
20°C
31%
21°C
33%
22°C or higher
24%
21°C 33%
20°C 31%
22°C or higher 24%
19°C 13%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
15 мая 2026 г.
12°C or below
$443 Объем
<1%
13°C
$137 Объем
<1%
14°C
$527 Объем
<1%
15°C
$746 Объем
<1%
16°C
$452 Объем
<1%
17°C
$821 Объем
1%
18°C
$1,028 Объем
3%
19°C
$574 Объем
13%
20°C
$687 Объем
31%
21°C
$354 Объем
33%
22°C or higher
$491 Объем
24%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a tight forecast ensemble for Istanbul's May 15 high temperature, with major models like those from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) projecting a peak of 23°C around 5 p.m. under mostly sunny skies, while international sources such as AccuWeather and Weather.com imply 21-22°C amid light winds and clear conditions. This clustering around 20-21°C stems from a warming trend over the past week, as southerly flows from the Marmara Sea boost daytime heating beyond early-May norms of 19-20°C, though sea breezes and urban variability could cap peaks at 20°C or push toward 22°C+. Key differentiators include model spread in afternoon cloud cover and exact station measurements (e.g., Istanbul Airport vs. city center); watch MGM updates overnight for refined guidance ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: May 13, 2026, 12:13 AM ET
Объем
$6,258Дата окончания
15 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 13, 2026, 12:13 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a tight forecast ensemble for Istanbul's May 15 high temperature, with major models like those from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) projecting a peak of 23°C around 5 p.m. under mostly sunny skies, while international sources such as AccuWeather and Weather.com imply 21-22°C amid light winds and clear conditions. This clustering around 20-21°C stems from a warming trend over the past week, as southerly flows from the Marmara Sea boost daytime heating beyond early-May norms of 19-20°C, though sea breezes and urban variability could cap peaks at 20°C or push toward 22°C+. Key differentiators include model spread in afternoon cloud cover and exact station measurements (e.g., Istanbul Airport vs. city center); watch MGM updates overnight for refined guidance ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$6,258Дата окончания
15 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 13, 2026, 12:13 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a tight forecast ensemble for Istanbul's May 15 high temperature, with major models like those from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) projecting a peak of 23°C around 5 p.m. under mostly sunny skies, while international sources such as AccuWeather and Weather.com imply 21-22°C amid light winds and clear conditions. This clustering around 20-21°C stems from a warming trend over the past week, as southerly flows from the Marmara Sea boost daytime heating beyond early-May norms of 19-20°C, though sea breezes and urban variability could cap peaks at 20°C or push toward 22°C+. Key differentiators include model spread in afternoon cloud cover and exact station measurements (e.g., Istanbul Airport vs. city center); watch MGM updates overnight for refined guidance ahead of resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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