Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) short-range forecasts for Tokyo's May 17 minimum temperature, with ensemble models projecting a narrow cluster around 15–19°C amid mild early-May conditions and no dominant cold fronts. Recent model runs show slight divergence: warmer outcomes like 18–19°C gaining edge from persistent high-pressure ridging suppressing nocturnal radiative cooling, while cooler 15–17°C possibilities stem from potential scattered showers and light southerly winds enhancing urban heat island moderation in central Tokyo. Historical mid-May lows average 16°C, aligning with the balanced odds; extremes remain unlikely given climatological baselines. JMA's next advisory on May 14 could refine steering patterns and cloud cover, key differentiators for the overnight low at official Haneda or central stations.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСамая низкая температура в Токио 17 мая?
Самая низкая температура в Токио 17 мая?
18°C 25%
16°C 20%
17°C 20%
19°C 18%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
17 мая 2026 г.
14°C или ниже
5%
15°C
7%
16°C
20%
17°C
20%
18°C
25%
19°C
18%
20°C
4%
21°C
4%
22°C
1%
23°C
1%
24°C или выше
1%
18°C 25%
16°C 20%
17°C 20%
19°C 18%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
17 мая 2026 г.
14°C или ниже
$31 Объем
5%
15°C
$12 Объем
7%
16°C
$3 Объем
20%
17°C
$0 Объем
20%
18°C
$3 Объем
25%
19°C
$0 Объем
18%
20°C
$0 Объем
4%
21°C
$57 Объем
4%
22°C
$30 Объем
1%
23°C
$142 Объем
1%
24°C или выше
$57 Объем
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) short-range forecasts for Tokyo's May 17 minimum temperature, with ensemble models projecting a narrow cluster around 15–19°C amid mild early-May conditions and no dominant cold fronts. Recent model runs show slight divergence: warmer outcomes like 18–19°C gaining edge from persistent high-pressure ridging suppressing nocturnal radiative cooling, while cooler 15–17°C possibilities stem from potential scattered showers and light southerly winds enhancing urban heat island moderation in central Tokyo. Historical mid-May lows average 16°C, aligning with the balanced odds; extremes remain unlikely given climatological baselines. JMA's next advisory on May 14 could refine steering patterns and cloud cover, key differentiators for the overnight low at official Haneda or central stations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ET
Объем
$335Дата окончания
17 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) short-range forecasts for Tokyo's May 17 minimum temperature, with ensemble models projecting a narrow cluster around 15–19°C amid mild early-May conditions and no dominant cold fronts. Recent model runs show slight divergence: warmer outcomes like 18–19°C gaining edge from persistent high-pressure ridging suppressing nocturnal radiative cooling, while cooler 15–17°C possibilities stem from potential scattered showers and light southerly winds enhancing urban heat island moderation in central Tokyo. Historical mid-May lows average 16°C, aligning with the balanced odds; extremes remain unlikely given climatological baselines. JMA's next advisory on May 14 could refine steering patterns and cloud cover, key differentiators for the overnight low at official Haneda or central stations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$335Дата окончания
17 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTTrader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) short-range forecasts for Tokyo's May 17 minimum temperature, with ensemble models projecting a narrow cluster around 15–19°C amid mild early-May conditions and no dominant cold fronts. Recent model runs show slight divergence: warmer outcomes like 18–19°C gaining edge from persistent high-pressure ridging suppressing nocturnal radiative cooling, while cooler 15–17°C possibilities stem from potential scattered showers and light southerly winds enhancing urban heat island moderation in central Tokyo. Historical mid-May lows average 16°C, aligning with the balanced odds; extremes remain unlikely given climatological baselines. JMA's next advisory on May 14 could refine steering patterns and cloud cover, key differentiators for the overnight low at official Haneda or central stations.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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