The Japan Meteorological Agency's latest forecast, issued May 14, projects Tokyo's minimum temperature at Haneda Airport station on May 15 precisely at 14°C—aligning with the mid-May climatological normal of 14.7°C and driving near-unanimous trader consensus at 100% implied probability for this outcome. A stable high-pressure ridge promotes clear skies overnight, fostering radiative cooling toward the dew point under light winds and under 10% precipitation odds, with ensemble model runs from JMA and international sources converging tightly on this value; current early-morning observations further bolster the projection. Realistic challenges include lingering clouds trapping heat to elevate the low to 15°C or more, or excessive clearing yielding a dip to 13°C—both low-probability deviations given the tight forecast uncertainty range. Final JMA data release later today will resolve the market.