Market-implied probabilities for Tokyo's lowest temperature on May 14 tightly cluster at 16°C (46%) and 15°C (42%), driven by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) latest afternoon forecast of sunny conditions turning cloudy with highs near 26°C, alongside ensemble model outputs projecting mid-teens minima under light winds. Partial cloud cover provides insulation against radiational cooling, while Tokyo's urban heat island effect tempers drops compared to rural sites; historical mid-May averages hover around 15°C, amplifying 1°C uncertainty from evening cloud evolution and residual daytime heat. JMA hourly observations from the central Tokyo station will sharpen consensus as overnight data emerges, resolving on the lowest integer degree recorded from 00:00 to 23:59 JST.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСамая низкая температура в Токио 14 мая?
Самая низкая температура в Токио 14 мая?
15°C 52%
16°C 25%
17°C 8%
14°C 2.3%
$25,407 Объем
$25,407 Объем
13°C или ниже
<1%
14°C
2%
15°C
52%
16°C
25%
17°C
8%
18°C
<1%
15°C 52%
16°C 25%
17°C 8%
14°C 2.3%
$25,407 Объем
$25,407 Объем
13°C или ниже
<1%
14°C
2%
15°C
52%
16°C
25%
17°C
8%
18°C
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: May 11, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
Источник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Источник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Market-implied probabilities for Tokyo's lowest temperature on May 14 tightly cluster at 16°C (46%) and 15°C (42%), driven by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) latest afternoon forecast of sunny conditions turning cloudy with highs near 26°C, alongside ensemble model outputs projecting mid-teens minima under light winds. Partial cloud cover provides insulation against radiational cooling, while Tokyo's urban heat island effect tempers drops compared to rural sites; historical mid-May averages hover around 15°C, amplifying 1°C uncertainty from evening cloud evolution and residual daytime heat. JMA hourly observations from the central Tokyo station will sharpen consensus as overnight data emerges, resolving on the lowest integer degree recorded from 00:00 to 23:59 JST.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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