California's 38th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic partisan lean rooted in voter registration patterns and consistent electoral history, positioning Hilda Solis as the clear general-election frontrunner following her June 2026 primary win. The top-two primary advanced Solis and Republican Pedro Casas to the November ballot, with Solis capturing nearly half the vote in a field that included another Democrat. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with the district's structural advantages for Democratic candidates, including limited Republican infrastructure and fundraising gaps. Scenarios that could realistically alter the outcome remain narrow and would likely require unforeseen late-cycle developments such as candidate withdrawal, major legal issues, or significant shifts in turnout among key voting blocs. The general election timeline leaves limited windows for such changes before November 3.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоCA-38 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
CA-38 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
$61,233 Объем
$61,233 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократическая партия
94%
Республиканская партия
2%
$61,233 Объем
$61,233 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократическая партия
$30,324 Объем
94%
Республиканская партия
$30,909 Объем
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 38th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic partisan lean rooted in voter registration patterns and consistent electoral history, positioning Hilda Solis as the clear general-election frontrunner following her June 2026 primary win. The top-two primary advanced Solis and Republican Pedro Casas to the November ballot, with Solis capturing nearly half the vote in a field that included another Democrat. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with the district's structural advantages for Democratic candidates, including limited Republican infrastructure and fundraising gaps. Scenarios that could realistically alter the outcome remain narrow and would likely require unforeseen late-cycle developments such as candidate withdrawal, major legal issues, or significant shifts in turnout among key voting blocs. The general election timeline leaves limited windows for such changes before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Объем
$61,233Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 38th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic partisan lean rooted in voter registration patterns and consistent electoral history, positioning Hilda Solis as the clear general-election frontrunner following her June 2026 primary win. The top-two primary advanced Solis and Republican Pedro Casas to the November ballot, with Solis capturing nearly half the vote in a field that included another Democrat. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with the district's structural advantages for Democratic candidates, including limited Republican infrastructure and fundraising gaps. Scenarios that could realistically alter the outcome remain narrow and would likely require unforeseen late-cycle developments such as candidate withdrawal, major legal issues, or significant shifts in turnout among key voting blocs. The general election timeline leaves limited windows for such changes before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$61,233Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California's 38th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic partisan lean rooted in voter registration patterns and consistent electoral history, positioning Hilda Solis as the clear general-election frontrunner following her June 2026 primary win. The top-two primary advanced Solis and Republican Pedro Casas to the November ballot, with Solis capturing nearly half the vote in a field that included another Democrat. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with the district's structural advantages for Democratic candidates, including limited Republican infrastructure and fundraising gaps. Scenarios that could realistically alter the outcome remain narrow and would likely require unforeseen late-cycle developments such as candidate withdrawal, major legal issues, or significant shifts in turnout among key voting blocs. The general election timeline leaves limited windows for such changes before November 3.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы