California's 43rd congressional district maintains a strong Democratic partisan lean, reflected in its D+27 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent electoral history. Incumbent Maxine Waters advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with over 63 percent of the vote against Republican Cristian Morales and intra-party challengers, positioning her for the November general election. Trader consensus assigns the Democratic nominee a 95.5 percent implied probability, driven by the district's voter composition, incumbency advantages, and limited Republican infrastructure. Scenarios that could narrow this margin include late-cycle turnout shifts, candidate health developments, or unexpected national political realignments altering local voting patterns before Election Day.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоCA-43 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
CA-43 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
$30,950 Объем
$30,950 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократическая партия
96%
Республиканская партия
4%
$30,950 Объем
$30,950 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократическая партия
$10,935 Объем
96%
Республиканская партия
$20,015 Объем
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-43 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 43rd congressional district maintains a strong Democratic partisan lean, reflected in its D+27 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent electoral history. Incumbent Maxine Waters advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with over 63 percent of the vote against Republican Cristian Morales and intra-party challengers, positioning her for the November general election. Trader consensus assigns the Democratic nominee a 95.5 percent implied probability, driven by the district's voter composition, incumbency advantages, and limited Republican infrastructure. Scenarios that could narrow this margin include late-cycle turnout shifts, candidate health developments, or unexpected national political realignments altering local voting patterns before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-43 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 28, 2026, 10:29 AM ET
Объем
$30,950Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 10:29 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-43 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 43rd congressional district maintains a strong Democratic partisan lean, reflected in its D+27 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent electoral history. Incumbent Maxine Waters advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with over 63 percent of the vote against Republican Cristian Morales and intra-party challengers, positioning her for the November general election. Trader consensus assigns the Democratic nominee a 95.5 percent implied probability, driven by the district's voter composition, incumbency advantages, and limited Republican infrastructure. Scenarios that could narrow this margin include late-cycle turnout shifts, candidate health developments, or unexpected national political realignments altering local voting patterns before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-43 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$30,950Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 10:29 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California's 43rd congressional district maintains a strong Democratic partisan lean, reflected in its D+27 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent electoral history. Incumbent Maxine Waters advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with over 63 percent of the vote against Republican Cristian Morales and intra-party challengers, positioning her for the November general election. Trader consensus assigns the Democratic nominee a 95.5 percent implied probability, driven by the district's voter composition, incumbency advantages, and limited Republican infrastructure. Scenarios that could narrow this margin include late-cycle turnout shifts, candidate health developments, or unexpected national political realignments altering local voting patterns before Election Day.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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