Market-implied odds show a tight contest between 2.3% and 2.4% Core CPI YoY for August 2026, with those outcomes together commanding 76% probability and 2.5% adding another 20%. This distribution reflects trader uncertainty around the inflation trajectory after the prior month's print, driven by mixed signals in shelter costs, core services ex-housing, and goods deflation. Recent labor market softening and stable commodity prices have tempered upside risks, while persistent wage pressures and base effects keep the lower readings competitive. The August release, due in mid-September, will resolve the market, and any surprise in the shelter component or revisions to earlier data could quickly shift pricing away from the current 2.3–2.4% cluster.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено2,4% 40%
2,3% 36%
2,5% 20%
2,7% 5.5%
≤2,0%
1%
2,1%
<1%
2,2%
4%
2,3%
36%
2,4%
40%
2,5%
20%
2,6%
5%
2,7%
5%
2,8%
3%
≥2,9%
1%
2,4% 40%
2,3% 36%
2,5% 20%
2,7% 5.5%
≤2,0%
1%
2,1%
<1%
2,2%
4%
2,3%
36%
2,4%
40%
2,5%
20%
2,6%
5%
2,7%
5%
2,8%
3%
≥2,9%
1%
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Открытие рынка: Aug 12, 2026, 10:17 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Market-implied odds show a tight contest between 2.3% and 2.4% Core CPI YoY for August 2026, with those outcomes together commanding 76% probability and 2.5% adding another 20%. This distribution reflects trader uncertainty around the inflation trajectory after the prior month's print, driven by mixed signals in shelter costs, core services ex-housing, and goods deflation. Recent labor market softening and stable commodity prices have tempered upside risks, while persistent wage pressures and base effects keep the lower readings competitive. The August release, due in mid-September, will resolve the market, and any surprise in the shelter component or revisions to earlier data could quickly shift pricing away from the current 2.3–2.4% cluster.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено


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