Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 69.5% implied probability for Beijing's highest temperature on May 14 at 33°C or below, driven by the China Meteorological Administration's (CMA) official forecast via World Meteorological Centre Beijing of a 33°C daytime high under sunny skies with light southeast winds and hourly peaks near 32.9°C. This aligns with the tail end of North China's first 2026 heatwave, featuring a persistent high-pressure ridge promoting atmospheric subsidence and above-normal May temperatures (historical average ~26°C). Divergence in global models like those powering AccuWeather (35°C) and timeanddate.com (36°C) supports 21% odds on 34°C and 10% on 35°C, reflecting urban heat island potential and short-range forecast uncertainty. Updated CMA guidance expected today could refine these market-implied odds ahead of official observations.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Beijing on May 14?
Highest temperature in Beijing on May 14?
33°C or below 64%
34°C 22%
35°C 12%
36°C 2.5%
$31,499 Объем
$31,499 Объем
33°C or below
64%
34°C
22%
35°C
12%
36°C
3%
37°C
1%
38°C
<1%
39°C
<1%
40°C
<1%
41°C
<1%
42°C
<1%
43°C or higher
<1%
33°C or below 64%
34°C 22%
35°C 12%
36°C 2.5%
$31,499 Объем
$31,499 Объем
33°C or below
64%
34°C
22%
35°C
12%
36°C
3%
37°C
1%
38°C
<1%
39°C
<1%
40°C
<1%
41°C
<1%
42°C
<1%
43°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: May 12, 2026, 12:25 AM ET
Источник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Источник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 69.5% implied probability for Beijing's highest temperature on May 14 at 33°C or below, driven by the China Meteorological Administration's (CMA) official forecast via World Meteorological Centre Beijing of a 33°C daytime high under sunny skies with light southeast winds and hourly peaks near 32.9°C. This aligns with the tail end of North China's first 2026 heatwave, featuring a persistent high-pressure ridge promoting atmospheric subsidence and above-normal May temperatures (historical average ~26°C). Divergence in global models like those powering AccuWeather (35°C) and timeanddate.com (36°C) supports 21% odds on 34°C and 10% on 35°C, reflecting urban heat island potential and short-range forecast uncertainty. Updated CMA guidance expected today could refine these market-implied odds ahead of official observations.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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