Latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System indicate Cape Town’s maximum temperature on May 19 will likely peak between 21°C and 22°C under typical autumn conditions. A strengthening high-pressure ridge over the South Atlantic is expected to limit cloud cover and allow moderate solar heating, while light southerly winds off the cooler Benguela Current moderate daytime peaks. Minor model spread arises from differences in the exact timing of a weak frontal trough and boundary-layer mixing, which could nudge the reading a degree higher or lower. Historical climatology shows May highs averaging near 19°C, so the current consensus reflects slightly warmer-than-average steering patterns without extreme anomalies. Updated model runs and South African Weather Service guidance later this week will further refine resolution criteria for the market.