Recent Météo-France guidance and ensemble model runs for May 17 point to a daytime high near 16 °C as the most probable outcome under lingering cool, unstable conditions across northern France. A broad low-pressure trough and associated northerly flow continue to advect maritime air masses, while persistent cloud cover limits surface heating and caps potential warming. Model consensus clusters between 15 °C and 17 °C, with the narrow spread reflecting uncertainty in exact cloud timing and boundary-layer mixing rather than large-scale regime shifts. Historical May climatology for Paris shows a mean high of about 19 °C, so current conditions represent a notable negative anomaly that traders are pricing through the tight clustering around the lower-to-middle teens. Updated short-range forecasts and the next model cycle expected within 24 hours will further refine the distribution ahead of resolution.