Current forecast models from the Hong Kong Observatory and global ensembles indicate a daytime maximum near 26–28 °C on May 17, driven by moderate southerly flow, dew points in the low 20s, and variable cloud cover that could cap insolation. With market-implied probabilities closely split between 25 °C and 26 °C, traders are pricing in modest uncertainty over exact peak timing and the strength of any onshore breeze or convective clouds, which historically trim highs by 1–2 °C in Hong Kong’s subtropical May regime. Seasonal sea-surface temperatures near 26 °C and the absence of strong high-pressure suppression further support this narrow range. Updated model runs and official observatory guidance tomorrow morning will likely refine the precise threshold ahead of resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСамая высокая температура в Гонконге 17 мая?
25°C 34%
26°C 31%
27°C 18%
28°C 11%
$21,750 Объем
$21,750 Объем
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
7%
25°C
34%
26°C
31%
27°C
18%
28°C
11%
29°C or higher
4%
25°C 34%
26°C 31%
27°C 18%
28°C 11%
$21,750 Объем
$21,750 Объем
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
7%
25°C
34%
26°C
31%
27°C
18%
28°C
11%
29°C or higher
4%
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Current forecast models from the Hong Kong Observatory and global ensembles indicate a daytime maximum near 26–28 °C on May 17, driven by moderate southerly flow, dew points in the low 20s, and variable cloud cover that could cap insolation. With market-implied probabilities closely split between 25 °C and 26 °C, traders are pricing in modest uncertainty over exact peak timing and the strength of any onshore breeze or convective clouds, which historically trim highs by 1–2 °C in Hong Kong’s subtropical May regime. Seasonal sea-surface temperatures near 26 °C and the absence of strong high-pressure suppression further support this narrow range. Updated model runs and official observatory guidance tomorrow morning will likely refine the precise threshold ahead of resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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