Recent ensemble forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and global models show maximum temperatures on May 18 most likely peaking between 26°C and 28°C, driven by typical late-spring southerly monsoon flows that advect warm, moist air from the South China Sea while moderating extremes through partial cloud cover and light showers. These conditions align with May climatology, where daily highs average near 28°C, but short-term model spread arises from uncertainties in convective timing and boundary-layer mixing. Traders price the narrow 26–28°C band heavily because any deviation toward drier subsidence or enhanced onshore flow would shift the outcome by only 1–2°C, keeping higher values above 29°C at low probability.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСамая высокая температура в Гонконге 18 мая?
28°C 33%
27°C 31%
26°C 25%
29°C 7%
$18,258 Объем
$18,258 Объем
21°C или ниже
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
5%
26°C
25%
27°C
31%
28°C
33%
29°C
7%
30°C
5%
31°C или выше
2%
28°C 33%
27°C 31%
26°C 25%
29°C 7%
$18,258 Объем
$18,258 Объем
21°C или ниже
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
5%
26°C
25%
27°C
31%
28°C
33%
29°C
7%
30°C
5%
31°C или выше
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Recent ensemble forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and global models show maximum temperatures on May 18 most likely peaking between 26°C and 28°C, driven by typical late-spring southerly monsoon flows that advect warm, moist air from the South China Sea while moderating extremes through partial cloud cover and light showers. These conditions align with May climatology, where daily highs average near 28°C, but short-term model spread arises from uncertainties in convective timing and boundary-layer mixing. Traders price the narrow 26–28°C band heavily because any deviation toward drier subsidence or enhanced onshore flow would shift the outcome by only 1–2°C, keeping higher values above 29°C at low probability.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы