Recent PAGASA guidance and supporting model consensus point to a 33–34°C peak for Manila on May 18 under easterly flow and only modest moisture, which explains the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those two outcomes. Forecasters note that limited afternoon convection and stable steering patterns could allow brief clearing that pushes the official high toward 35°C, while persistent cloud build-up or localized showers might cap it at 33°C. Historical May climatology for the region shows typical daily maxima near 34°C, providing context for why traders assign the highest probabilities to the narrow 33–35°C band. Updated PAGASA briefings and late-day observational data from the central station will refine the exact threshold ahead of market resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСамая высокая температура в Маниле 18 мая?
34°C 38%
35°C 34%
33°C 17%
36°C 9.2%
29°C или ниже
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
1%
32°C
4%
33°C
17%
34°C
38%
35°C
34%
36°C
9%
37°C
2%
38°C
1%
39°C или выше
<1%
34°C 38%
35°C 34%
33°C 17%
36°C 9.2%
29°C или ниже
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
1%
32°C
4%
33°C
17%
34°C
38%
35°C
34%
36°C
9%
37°C
2%
38°C
1%
39°C или выше
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: May 16, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Источник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLThe resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Источник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLRecent PAGASA guidance and supporting model consensus point to a 33–34°C peak for Manila on May 18 under easterly flow and only modest moisture, which explains the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those two outcomes. Forecasters note that limited afternoon convection and stable steering patterns could allow brief clearing that pushes the official high toward 35°C, while persistent cloud build-up or localized showers might cap it at 33°C. Historical May climatology for the region shows typical daily maxima near 34°C, providing context for why traders assign the highest probabilities to the narrow 33–35°C band. Updated PAGASA briefings and late-day observational data from the central station will refine the exact threshold ahead of market resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы