Recent National Weather Service and NOAA model guidance for Chicago points to a high near 79°F on May 18, driven by southerly flow and above-normal mid-May warmth that has kept most ensemble runs in the upper 70s to low 80s. This strong scientific consensus from official forecast models explains why traders have assigned an 89% implied probability to 78°F or higher, well above the 1991–2020 climatological normal of 71°F. With resolution just two days away, limited downside risk remains unless a faster-moving cold front arrives, though current steering patterns show no such development. Updated short-range runs from the National Weather Service will provide the final data points before the market settles.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСамая высокая температура в Чикаго 18 мая?
78°F или выше 92%
76–77°F 11%
72-73°F 4.0%
74-75°F 3.6%
59°F или ниже
<1%
60-61°F
<1%
62-63°F
<1%
64-65°F
<1%
66-67°F
1%
68-69°F
<1%
70-71°F
3%
72-73°F
4%
74-75°F
4%
76–77°F
11%
78°F или выше
92%
78°F или выше 92%
76–77°F 11%
72-73°F 4.0%
74-75°F 3.6%
59°F или ниже
<1%
60-61°F
<1%
62-63°F
<1%
64-65°F
<1%
66-67°F
1%
68-69°F
<1%
70-71°F
3%
72-73°F
4%
74-75°F
4%
76–77°F
11%
78°F или выше
92%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Источник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDThe resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Источник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDRecent National Weather Service and NOAA model guidance for Chicago points to a high near 79°F on May 18, driven by southerly flow and above-normal mid-May warmth that has kept most ensemble runs in the upper 70s to low 80s. This strong scientific consensus from official forecast models explains why traders have assigned an 89% implied probability to 78°F or higher, well above the 1991–2020 climatological normal of 71°F. With resolution just two days away, limited downside risk remains unless a faster-moving cold front arrives, though current steering patterns show no such development. Updated short-range runs from the National Weather Service will provide the final data points before the market settles.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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