Ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Brazil’s INMET/CPTEC models currently project a peak near 28°C for São Paulo on May 17, driven by a persistent subtropical ridge advecting warmer-than-average air masses with minimal frontal activity. This setup exceeds the city’s May climatological average high of 22–23°C at São Paulo-Guarulhos and supports the market’s 78% implied probability for 23°C or higher. Light winds and partial cloud cover are expected to limit nocturnal cooling, while historical analogs from early-to-mid May indicate such configurations rarely fall below the 23°C threshold absent an early cold front. Updated model runs scheduled for tomorrow morning will provide final confirmation ahead of market resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСамая высокая температура в Сан-Паулу 17 мая?
23°C or higher 79%
22°C 17%
21°C 3.9%
20°C 3.1%
$11,706 Объем
$11,706 Объем
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
1%
19°C
1%
20°C
3%
21°C
4%
22°C
17%
23°C or higher
79%
23°C or higher 79%
22°C 17%
21°C 3.9%
20°C 3.1%
$11,706 Объем
$11,706 Объем
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
1%
19°C
1%
20°C
3%
21°C
4%
22°C
17%
23°C or higher
79%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: May 15, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Источник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRThe resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Источник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGREnsemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Brazil’s INMET/CPTEC models currently project a peak near 28°C for São Paulo on May 17, driven by a persistent subtropical ridge advecting warmer-than-average air masses with minimal frontal activity. This setup exceeds the city’s May climatological average high of 22–23°C at São Paulo-Guarulhos and supports the market’s 78% implied probability for 23°C or higher. Light winds and partial cloud cover are expected to limit nocturnal cooling, while historical analogs from early-to-mid May indicate such configurations rarely fall below the 23°C threshold absent an early cold front. Updated model runs scheduled for tomorrow morning will provide final confirmation ahead of market resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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