**Unity (HaAchdut), the right-wing party founded in August 2026 by Gilad Erdan and Yuli Edelstein after splitting from Likud, withdrew from the October 27 Knesset election on September 4 following unsuccessful merger talks—including with Benny Gantz’s Blue and White—and consistent polling below the electoral threshold.** With no slate on the ballot, its projected vote share stands at zero. Trader consensus assigns a 94% probability to an outcome under 0.5%, reflecting the party’s exit and the absence of any realistic path for independent participation or significant write-in support. Late developments such as renewed alliance negotiations or procedural reversals remain theoretically possible but lack supporting evidence in current reporting and would require extraordinary circumstances to alter the result before election day.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено<0,5% 94.0%
0,5–0,75% 1.1%
0,75-1% <1%
1-2% <1%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
30 нояб. 2026 г.
<0,5%
94%
0,5–0,75%
1%
0,75-1%
1%
1-2%
1%
2%+
1%
<0,5% 94.0%
0,5–0,75% 1.1%
0,75-1% <1%
1-2% <1%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
30 нояб. 2026 г.
<0,5%
$341 Объем
94%
0,5–0,75%
$162 Объем
1%
0,75-1%
$109 Объем
1%
1-2%
$112 Объем
1%
2%+
$176 Объем
1%
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Unity party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Unity's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Unity passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Unity contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Unity merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).**Unity (HaAchdut), the right-wing party founded in August 2026 by Gilad Erdan and Yuli Edelstein after splitting from Likud, withdrew from the October 27 Knesset election on September 4 following unsuccessful merger talks—including with Benny Gantz’s Blue and White—and consistent polling below the electoral threshold.**
With no slate on the ballot, its projected vote share stands at zero. Trader consensus assigns a 94% probability to an outcome under 0.5%, reflecting the party’s exit and the absence of any realistic path for independent participation or significant write-in support. Late developments such as renewed alliance negotiations or procedural reversals remain theoretically possible but lack supporting evidence in current reporting and would require extraordinary circumstances to alter the result before election day.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Unity party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Unity's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Unity passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Unity contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Unity merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Unity party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Unity's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Unity passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Unity contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Unity merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Открытие рынка: Sep 8, 2026, 4:27 PM ET
Объем
$901Дата окончания
27 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 8, 2026, 4:27 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/Кто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Unity party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Unity's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Unity passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Unity contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Unity merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).**Unity (HaAchdut), the right-wing party founded in August 2026 by Gilad Erdan and Yuli Edelstein after splitting from Likud, withdrew from the October 27 Knesset election on September 4 following unsuccessful merger talks—including with Benny Gantz’s Blue and White—and consistent polling below the electoral threshold.**
With no slate on the ballot, its projected vote share stands at zero. Trader consensus assigns a 94% probability to an outcome under 0.5%, reflecting the party’s exit and the absence of any realistic path for independent participation or significant write-in support. Late developments such as renewed alliance negotiations or procedural reversals remain theoretically possible but lack supporting evidence in current reporting and would require extraordinary circumstances to alter the result before election day.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Unity party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Unity's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Unity passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Unity contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Unity merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Unity party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Unity's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Unity passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Unity contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Unity merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Объем
$901Дата окончания
27 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 8, 2026, 4:27 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/Кто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...**Unity (HaAchdut), the right-wing party founded in August 2026 by Gilad Erdan and Yuli Edelstein after splitting from Likud, withdrew from the October 27 Knesset election on September 4 following unsuccessful merger talks—including with Benny Gantz’s Blue and White—and consistent polling below the electoral threshold.** With no slate on the ballot, its projected vote share stands at zero. Trader consensus assigns a 94% probability to an outcome under 0.5%, reflecting the party’s exit and the absence of any realistic path for independent participation or significant write-in support. Late developments such as renewed alliance negotiations or procedural reversals remain theoretically possible but lack supporting evidence in current reporting and would require extraordinary circumstances to alter the result before election day.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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