Traders assign a 96.2% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026 due to the absence of large-scale amphibious buildup, mobilization signals, or official statements indicating imminent action, even amid routine PLA exercises and gray-zone coercion. Recent developments include Taiwan’s August 2026 Han Kuang drills emphasizing realistic defense scenarios, reservist call-ups, and supply resilience, alongside PRC live-fire drills in July and maritime traffic controls. These patterns align with historical short-of-war pressure rather than preparation for full-scale conflict. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include rapid escalation from miscalculation during exercises, unforeseen leadership decisions, or sudden diplomatic realignments, though such triggers remain low-probability within the limited remaining timeframe.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоВторгнется ли Китай на Тайвань к концу 2026 года?
Вторгнется ли Китай на Тайвань к концу 2026 года?
Да
$39,750,064 Объем
$39,750,064 Объем
Да
$39,750,064 Объем
$39,750,064 Объем
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Открытие рынка: Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ET
Кто определяет исход
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Кто определяет исход
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Traders assign a 96.2% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026 due to the absence of large-scale amphibious buildup, mobilization signals, or official statements indicating imminent action, even amid routine PLA exercises and gray-zone coercion. Recent developments include Taiwan’s August 2026 Han Kuang drills emphasizing realistic defense scenarios, reservist call-ups, and supply resilience, alongside PRC live-fire drills in July and maritime traffic controls. These patterns align with historical short-of-war pressure rather than preparation for full-scale conflict. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include rapid escalation from miscalculation during exercises, unforeseen leadership decisions, or sudden diplomatic realignments, though such triggers remain low-probability within the limited remaining timeframe.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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