SpaceX Odds & Predictions | Polymarket

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Technology

Technology

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Lead Bank in SpaceX’s IPO? card icon

Lead Bank in SpaceX’s IPO?

Morgan Stanley

76%

Goldman Sachs

12%

Morgan Stanley

76%

Goldman Sachs

12%

$249k Vol.

1 megaton meteor strike in 2026? card icon

1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?

5%

chance

$12k Vol.

What will SpaceX's public ticker be? card icon

What will SpaceX's public ticker be?

$STAR

25%

$SPAX

22%

$STAR

25%

$SPAX

22%

$1m Vol.

SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap card icon

SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap

<500B

1%

500B–600B

1%

<500B

1%

500B–600B

1%

$500k Vol.

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above ___ ? card icon

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above ___ ?

>$1T

70%

>$1.2T

55%

>$1T

70%

>$1.2T

55%

$159k Vol.

Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026? card icon

Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?

26%

chance

$63k Vol.

repeat-3daily
SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 card icon

SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12

January 31

2%

February 28

38%

January 31

2%

February 28

38%

$528k Vol.

5kt meteor strike in 2026? card icon

5kt meteor strike in 2026?

52%

chance

$128k Vol.

repeat-3daily
How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026? card icon

How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?

<5

20%

5-6

36%

<5

20%

5-6

36%

$6k Vol.

repeat-3daily
100kt meteor strike in 2026? card icon

100kt meteor strike in 2026?

6%

chance

$1k Vol.

SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027? card icon

SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027?

54%

chance

$2k Vol.

repeat-3annual