SpaceX's cautious testing cadence and pending FAA approvals for orbital Starship flights are the main drivers behind trader consensus favoring fewer than six 2026 launches reaching space. As of late September, only Flights 12 and 13 (both Version 3 vehicles) have achieved space-reaching trajectories this year after earlier suborbital attempts, with Flight 14 now targeted for September 28 to deliver the first 26 operational Starlink V3 satellites into low Earth orbit. Subsequent missions like Flight 15 remain slated for December, but historical delays from engine anomalies, reentry testing, and regulatory reviews—plus the shift to full orbital profiles—limit rapid scaling. Upcoming catalysts include FAA license modifications and booster catch attempts that could accelerate or stall the manifest.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
<5 58%
5-6 45%
7-8 2.8%
>16 1.1%
$513,812 Vol.
$513,812 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
<5
55%
5-6
45%
7-8
3%
9-10
<1%
11-12
1%
13-14
<1%
15-16
<1%
>16
1%
<5 58%
5-6 45%
7-8 2.8%
>16 1.1%
$513,812 Vol.
$513,812 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
<5
$102,844 Vol.
55%
5-6
$117,407 Vol.
45%
7-8
$161,675 Vol.
3%
9-10
$63,399 Vol.
<1%
11-12
$10,757 Vol.
1%
13-14
$11,020 Vol.
<1%
15-16
$32,047 Vol.
<1%
>16
$14,663 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.SpaceX's cautious testing cadence and pending FAA approvals for orbital Starship flights are the main drivers behind trader consensus favoring fewer than six 2026 launches reaching space. As of late September, only Flights 12 and 13 (both Version 3 vehicles) have achieved space-reaching trajectories this year after earlier suborbital attempts, with Flight 14 now targeted for September 28 to deliver the first 26 operational Starlink V3 satellites into low Earth orbit. Subsequent missions like Flight 15 remain slated for December, but historical delays from engine anomalies, reentry testing, and regulatory reviews—plus the shift to full orbital profiles—limit rapid scaling. Upcoming catalysts include FAA license modifications and booster catch attempts that could accelerate or stall the manifest.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ET
Volume
$513,812End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.SpaceX's cautious testing cadence and pending FAA approvals for orbital Starship flights are the main drivers behind trader consensus favoring fewer than six 2026 launches reaching space. As of late September, only Flights 12 and 13 (both Version 3 vehicles) have achieved space-reaching trajectories this year after earlier suborbital attempts, with Flight 14 now targeted for September 28 to deliver the first 26 operational Starlink V3 satellites into low Earth orbit. Subsequent missions like Flight 15 remain slated for December, but historical delays from engine anomalies, reentry testing, and regulatory reviews—plus the shift to full orbital profiles—limit rapid scaling. Upcoming catalysts include FAA license modifications and booster catch attempts that could accelerate or stall the manifest.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$513,812End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...SpaceX's cautious testing cadence and pending FAA approvals for orbital Starship flights are the main drivers behind trader consensus favoring fewer than six 2026 launches reaching space. As of late September, only Flights 12 and 13 (both Version 3 vehicles) have achieved space-reaching trajectories this year after earlier suborbital attempts, with Flight 14 now targeted for September 28 to deliver the first 26 operational Starlink V3 satellites into low Earth orbit. Subsequent missions like Flight 15 remain slated for December, but historical delays from engine anomalies, reentry testing, and regulatory reviews—plus the shift to full orbital profiles—limit rapid scaling. Upcoming catalysts include FAA license modifications and booster catch attempts that could accelerate or stall the manifest.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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