Technology

Grok 4.20 released on...?

January 11

January 12

January 11

January 12

$159k Vol.

Bikinis back on X by January 16?

chance

$30k Vol.

Lead Bank in SpaceX’s IPO?

Morgan Stanley

76%

Goldman Sachs

12%

Morgan Stanley

76%

Goldman Sachs

12%

$249k Vol.

Grok 4.20 released by...?

January 15

January 31

55%

January 15

January 31

55%

$360k Vol.

Richest person on March 31?

Elon Musk

98%

Jeff Bezos

Elon Musk

98%

Jeff Bezos

$78k Vol.

monthly

Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by...?

March 31, 2026

29%

June 30, 2026

44%

March 31, 2026

29%

June 30, 2026

44%

$2m Vol.

Nothing Ever Happens: Elon Edition

82%

chance

$41k Vol.

What will SpaceX's public ticker be?

$STAR

25%

$SPAX

22%

$STAR

25%

$SPAX

22%

$1m Vol.

How many Tesla deliveries in Q1 2026?

<350k

51%

350k–375k

15%

<350k

51%

350k–375k

15%

$148k Vol.

daily

SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap

<500B

500B–600B

<500B

500B–600B

$500k Vol.

Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?

54%

chance

$186k Vol.

annual

Another Elon baby by June 30?

30%

chance

$41k Vol.

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above ___ ?

>$1T

70%

>$1.2T

55%

>$1T

70%

>$1.2T

55%

$159k Vol.

SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12

January 31

February 28

37%

January 31

February 28

37%

$528k Vol.

Will Elon Musk change his X profile picture by January 31?

46%

chance

$3k Vol.

daily

Grok 5 released by March 31, 2026?

11%

chance

$57k Vol.

Will Tesla open orders for the Robovan before 2027?

20%

chance

$1k Vol.

How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?

19%

5-6

36%

19%

5-6

36%

$6k Vol.

daily

Richest person on December 31, 2026?

Elon Musk

90%

Larry Page

Elon Musk

90%

Larry Page

$121k Vol.

monthly

Will Elon Musk unfollow Grimes by January 31?

chance

$19k Vol.

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Elon Musk Odds & Predictions | Polymarket

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