Recent monthly data show the U.S. goods-and-services trade deficit narrowing to $73.3 billion in June 2026 from $77.6 billion in May, with imports falling 1.8 percent to $388 billion while exports eased modestly, extending the first-half cumulative gap to $371 billion—well below the prior-year pace. This contraction reflects the unwind of 2025 tariff front-loading that inflated imports, combined with a weaker dollar against several major currencies and firmer services exports in financial and travel categories. Trader consensus placing the highest implied probabilities on an $800–900 billion or $700–800 billion annual deficit therefore embeds expectations that these normalizing flows will persist through year-end rather than revert to 2025 peaks near $900 billion. Key near-term catalysts include the September BEA release, any further shifts in tariff implementation, and broader capital-flow dynamics tied to interest-rate differentials.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วUS Trade Deficit in 2026?
US Trade Deficit in 2026?
$24,009 ปริมาณ
$24,009 ปริมาณ
Feb 28, 2027
<500B
3%
500–600B
5%
600–700B
9%
700–800B
32%
800–900B
42%
900B–1T
14%
1T–1.1T
5%
1.1T+
6%
$24,009 ปริมาณ
$24,009 ปริมาณ
Feb 28, 2027
<500B
$16,848 ปริมาณ
3%
500–600B
$454 ปริมาณ
5%
600–700B
$543 ปริมาณ
9%
700–800B
$670 ปริมาณ
32%
800–900B
$1,519 ปริมาณ
42%
900B–1T
$1,397 ปริมาณ
14%
1T–1.1T
$1,458 ปริมาณ
5%
1.1T+
$1,119 ปริมาณ
6%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent monthly data show the U.S. goods-and-services trade deficit narrowing to $73.3 billion in June 2026 from $77.6 billion in May, with imports falling 1.8 percent to $388 billion while exports eased modestly, extending the first-half cumulative gap to $371 billion—well below the prior-year pace. This contraction reflects the unwind of 2025 tariff front-loading that inflated imports, combined with a weaker dollar against several major currencies and firmer services exports in financial and travel categories. Trader consensus placing the highest implied probabilities on an $800–900 billion or $700–800 billion annual deficit therefore embeds expectations that these normalizing flows will persist through year-end rather than revert to 2025 peaks near $900 billion. Key near-term catalysts include the September BEA release, any further shifts in tariff implementation, and broader capital-flow dynamics tied to interest-rate differentials.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$24,009วันสิ้นสุด
Feb 28, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent monthly data show the U.S. goods-and-services trade deficit narrowing to $73.3 billion in June 2026 from $77.6 billion in May, with imports falling 1.8 percent to $388 billion while exports eased modestly, extending the first-half cumulative gap to $371 billion—well below the prior-year pace. This contraction reflects the unwind of 2025 tariff front-loading that inflated imports, combined with a weaker dollar against several major currencies and firmer services exports in financial and travel categories. Trader consensus placing the highest implied probabilities on an $800–900 billion or $700–800 billion annual deficit therefore embeds expectations that these normalizing flows will persist through year-end rather than revert to 2025 peaks near $900 billion. Key near-term catalysts include the September BEA release, any further shifts in tariff implementation, and broader capital-flow dynamics tied to interest-rate differentials.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$24,009วันสิ้นสุด
Feb 28, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent monthly data show the U.S. goods-and-services trade deficit narrowing to $73.3 billion in June 2026 from $77.6 billion in May, with imports falling 1.8 percent to $388 billion while exports eased modestly, extending the first-half cumulative gap to $371 billion—well below the prior-year pace. This contraction reflects the unwind of 2025 tariff front-loading that inflated imports, combined with a weaker dollar against several major currencies and firmer services exports in financial and travel categories. Trader consensus placing the highest implied probabilities on an $800–900 billion or $700–800 billion annual deficit therefore embeds expectations that these normalizing flows will persist through year-end rather than revert to 2025 peaks near $900 billion. Key near-term catalysts include the September BEA release, any further shifts in tariff implementation, and broader capital-flow dynamics tied to interest-rate differentials.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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