Traders assign overwhelming probability to fewer than five posts from the primary Khamenei.ir account in the September 18–25 window because the official channel has long followed a low-volume pattern of occasional statements rather than daily or weekly output. Recent activity confirms this baseline, with posts appearing roughly every few days to weeks and often tied to specific regional developments or commemorations rather than routine commentary. The account’s content strategy emphasizes curated quotes and targeted messaging over high-frequency updates, a practice that has persisted through leadership transitions and ongoing geopolitical tensions. A surge above five posts would require an unusually dense sequence of official pronouncements, which historical posting rhythms and institutional communication norms make improbable absent a major, rapidly evolving event within the resolution period.