Ongoing geopolitical tensions from the US-Israel military operations against Iran since late February 2026 have sharply curtailed commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint handling roughly one-fifth of global seaborne oil trade. Pre-conflict daily transits averaged 130–140 vessels; recent data show volumes collapsing to single digits per day or zero in early May, with weekly totals as low as 18–40 amid safety concerns, Iranian controls, and US naval measures. Ceasefire announcements have produced only modest, short-lived rebounds, leaving over 1,000 vessels stranded and oil flows down more than 90 percent. Traders monitoring the market focus on whether any normalization window opens before the May 31 resolution date, as persistent low throughput reflects unresolved regional risks rather than seasonal or technical factors.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update$484,930 Vol.
May 31, 2026
20+
47%
40+
9%
60+
5%
80+
4%
$484,930 Vol.
20+
$111,906 Vol.
47%
40+
$122,649 Vol.
9%
60+
$68,338 Vol.
5%
80+
$182,038 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing geopolitical tensions from the US-Israel military operations against Iran since late February 2026 have sharply curtailed commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint handling roughly one-fifth of global seaborne oil trade. Pre-conflict daily transits averaged 130–140 vessels; recent data show volumes collapsing to single digits per day or zero in early May, with weekly totals as low as 18–40 amid safety concerns, Iranian controls, and US naval measures. Ceasefire announcements have produced only modest, short-lived rebounds, leaving over 1,000 vessels stranded and oil flows down more than 90 percent. Traders monitoring the market focus on whether any normalization window opens before the May 31 resolution date, as persistent low throughput reflects unresolved regional risks rather than seasonal or technical factors.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Binuksan ang Market: Apr 29, 2026, 4:59 PM ET
Volume
$484,930Petsa ng Pagtatapos
May 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Apr 29, 2026, 4:59 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing geopolitical tensions from the US-Israel military operations against Iran since late February 2026 have sharply curtailed commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint handling roughly one-fifth of global seaborne oil trade. Pre-conflict daily transits averaged 130–140 vessels; recent data show volumes collapsing to single digits per day or zero in early May, with weekly totals as low as 18–40 amid safety concerns, Iranian controls, and US naval measures. Ceasefire announcements have produced only modest, short-lived rebounds, leaving over 1,000 vessels stranded and oil flows down more than 90 percent. Traders monitoring the market focus on whether any normalization window opens before the May 31 resolution date, as persistent low throughput reflects unresolved regional risks rather than seasonal or technical factors.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$484,930Petsa ng Pagtatapos
May 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Apr 29, 2026, 4:59 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing geopolitical tensions from the US-Israel military operations against Iran since late February 2026 have sharply curtailed commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint handling roughly one-fifth of global seaborne oil trade. Pre-conflict daily transits averaged 130–140 vessels; recent data show volumes collapsing to single digits per day or zero in early May, with weekly totals as low as 18–40 amid safety concerns, Iranian controls, and US naval measures. Ceasefire announcements have produced only modest, short-lived rebounds, leaving over 1,000 vessels stranded and oil flows down more than 90 percent. Traders monitoring the market focus on whether any normalization window opens before the May 31 resolution date, as persistent low throughput reflects unresolved regional risks rather than seasonal or technical factors.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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