NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies continues to report no known asteroids or comets on collision courses capable of producing a 5 kt airburst through the end of 2026, anchoring the 74% market-implied probability of no strike. Continuous Sentry and Scout monitoring, combined with recent safe close approaches such as 2026 JH2 and 2026 PK, reinforce the absence of detectable threats at this energy threshold. While undetected small objects could theoretically enter Earth’s atmosphere and release comparable energy, the low annual frequency of 5 kt events and improving survey completeness keep trader consensus firmly on “No,” with resolution hinging on whether any verified bolide meets the exact criteria before year-end.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено5kt meteor strike in 2026?
5kt meteor strike in 2026?
27% шанс
$312,416 Обс.
$312,416 Обс.
Dec 30, 2026
27% шанс
$312,416 Обс.
$312,416 Обс.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies continues to report no known asteroids or comets on collision courses capable of producing a 5 kt airburst through the end of 2026, anchoring the 74% market-implied probability of no strike. Continuous Sentry and Scout monitoring, combined with recent safe close approaches such as 2026 JH2 and 2026 PK, reinforce the absence of detectable threats at this energy threshold. While undetected small objects could theoretically enter Earth’s atmosphere and release comparable energy, the low annual frequency of 5 kt events and improving survey completeness keep trader consensus firmly on “No,” with resolution hinging on whether any verified bolide meets the exact criteria before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Ринок відкрито: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
Обсяг
$312,416Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies continues to report no known asteroids or comets on collision courses capable of producing a 5 kt airburst through the end of 2026, anchoring the 74% market-implied probability of no strike. Continuous Sentry and Scout monitoring, combined with recent safe close approaches such as 2026 JH2 and 2026 PK, reinforce the absence of detectable threats at this energy threshold. While undetected small objects could theoretically enter Earth’s atmosphere and release comparable energy, the low annual frequency of 5 kt events and improving survey completeness keep trader consensus firmly on “No,” with resolution hinging on whether any verified bolide meets the exact criteria before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Обсяг
$312,416Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies continues to report no known asteroids or comets on collision courses capable of producing a 5 kt airburst through the end of 2026, anchoring the 74% market-implied probability of no strike. Continuous Sentry and Scout monitoring, combined with recent safe close approaches such as 2026 JH2 and 2026 PK, reinforce the absence of detectable threats at this energy threshold. While undetected small objects could theoretically enter Earth’s atmosphere and release comparable energy, the low annual frequency of 5 kt events and improving survey completeness keep trader consensus firmly on “No,” with resolution hinging on whether any verified bolide meets the exact criteria before year-end.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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