No leads at 73.5% because NASA CNEOS and ESA monitoring show no catalogued near-Earth objects on collision courses capable of producing a 5 kt or greater airburst in 2026, while historical bolide records from the JPL Fireball database and CTBTO infrasound networks indicate such events occur only once every few years on average. Meter-scale impactors reach multi-kiloton energies sporadically, but recent fireballs, including those over Ohio and the East Coast, have fallen well below the threshold, and refined orbits continue to confirm safe approaches only. Traders weigh this low base rate against the absence of new threats or model shifts that would elevate the annual probability.