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Світ·Канада

Canada's population Up or Down this year?

icon for Canada's population Up or Down this year?
Світ·Канада

Canada's population Up or Down this year?

Up

53% шанс
Polymarket
НОВЕ

Up

53% шанс
Polymarket
НОВЕ
This market will resolve to "Up" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025. This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025. If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start). Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a 2026 population decline at 61%, driven by Statistics Canada's March 18 preliminary estimates showing Canada's population fell 103,504 (-0.2%) to 41,472,081 on January 1, 2026—the first year-over-year quarterly drop on record since Confederation. This stems from sharp reductions in non-permanent residents, including temporary workers and students, following the federal government's November 2025 Immigration Levels Plan capping new temporary arrivals at 385,000 for 2026, down over 40% from 2025 peaks. The Parliamentary Budget Officer projected zero growth for the year on February 26, amid sustained low permanent resident targets of 380,000. Upcoming Q2 estimates in June could shift odds if inflows rebound unexpectedly.

This market will resolve to "Up" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.

This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.

If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50.

If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.

The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).

Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Обсяг
$1,488
Дата завершення
Apr 30, 2027
Ринок відкрито
Jan 27, 2026, 5:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Up" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025. This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025. If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start). Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve to "Up" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025. This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025. If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start). Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a 2026 population decline at 61%, driven by Statistics Canada's March 18 preliminary estimates showing Canada's population fell 103,504 (-0.2%) to 41,472,081 on January 1, 2026—the first year-over-year quarterly drop on record since Confederation. This stems from sharp reductions in non-permanent residents, including temporary workers and students, following the federal government's November 2025 Immigration Levels Plan capping new temporary arrivals at 385,000 for 2026, down over 40% from 2025 peaks. The Parliamentary Budget Officer projected zero growth for the year on February 26, amid sustained low permanent resident targets of 380,000. Upcoming Q2 estimates in June could shift odds if inflows rebound unexpectedly.

This market will resolve to "Up" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.

This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.

If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50.

If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.

The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).

Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Обсяг
$1,488
Дата завершення
Apr 30, 2027
Ринок відкрито
Jan 27, 2026, 5:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Up" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025. This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025. If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start). Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.

Часті запитання

"Canada's population Up or Down this year?" — це щоденний ринок прогнозів на Polymarket, де трейдери купують і продають акції на те, чи ціна Canada's population Up or Down this year? закриється вище ("Up") або нижче ("Down") за початкову ціну протягом вікна щоденний, вказаного в назві. Поточна ринкова ймовірність — 61% для "Down". Ціна 61% означає, що ринок колективно оцінює цей результат з ймовірністю 61%. Ціни оновлюються в реальному часі, реагуючи на живі рухи ціни Canada's population Up or Down this year?. Акції правильного результату можна обміняти на $1 кожну після вирішення.

"Canada's population Up or Down this year?" — це активний короткостроковий ринок на Polymarket. Торговий обсяг може швидко накопичуватися по мірі просування вікна щоденний — заходьте рано, щоб допомогти встановити шанси до закриття вікна.

Щоб торгувати на "Canada's population Up or Down this year?", вирішіть, чи ціна Canada's population Up or Down this year? опівдні ET April 29 буде вищою ("Up") або нижчою ("Down") за ціну Canada's population Up or Down this year? опівдні ET January 27. Купуйте "Up" якщо вважаєте, що ціна зросте день до дня, або "Down" якщо впаде. Введіть суму та натисніть "Trade". Правильний результат — $1.00 за акцію. Неправильний — $0.

Поточна ймовірність для "Canada's population Up or Down this year?" — 61% для "Down", що означає: спільнота Polymarket наразі оцінює ймовірність того, що ціна Canada's population Up or Down this year? закриється down протягом цього вікна щоденний, як 61%. Ці шанси оновлюються в реальному часі, реагуючи на живі дані цін Canada's population Up or Down this year?. Протягом дня шанси відображають настрої, що змінюються по мірі розгортання цінової дії. Повертайтеся частіше або торгуйте зараз, поки вікно не закрилося.

Ринок "Canada's population Up or Down this year?" вирішується порівнянням ціни Canada's population Up or Down this year? опівдні ET April 29 з опівднем ET January 27, використовуючи хвилинні свічки Binance CANADAS-POPULATION/USDT. Якщо ціна April 29 опівдні вища — "Up"; нижча — "Down"; рівна — ринок вирішується 50-50. Деталі в розділі "Rules".