Trader consensus implies a 75.5% probability of the CDC issuing a Level 3 Travel Health Notice—recommending travelers reconsider nonessential trips due to high disease risk—for any outbreak by December 31, 2026, driven primarily by the escalating hantavirus outbreak linked to the MV Hondius cruise ship, where 11 cases (eight confirmed, three suspected) and three deaths prompted a CDC Emergency Operations Center Level 3 activation around May 8. Hantavirus carries a case-fatality rate up to 38% and rare person-to-person transmission potential in certain strains, with passengers dispersed across Argentina, Cape Verde, Spain, and beyond, heightening escalation risks despite no sustained spread observed. No Level 3 notices are active per CDC data, but persistent Level 2 alerts for meningococcal disease in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, yellow fever in Venezuela, chikungunya, poliovirus, and mpox in West Africa signal ongoing threats; weekly FluView and surveillance updates could tip trajectories toward Level 3 criteria.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоCDC issues Level 3 warning by December 31?
CDC issues Level 3 warning by December 31?
$117,078 Обс.
$117,078 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
$117,078 Обс.
$117,078 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 3 (“Reconsider Nonessential Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A Level 3 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus implies a 75.5% probability of the CDC issuing a Level 3 Travel Health Notice—recommending travelers reconsider nonessential trips due to high disease risk—for any outbreak by December 31, 2026, driven primarily by the escalating hantavirus outbreak linked to the MV Hondius cruise ship, where 11 cases (eight confirmed, three suspected) and three deaths prompted a CDC Emergency Operations Center Level 3 activation around May 8. Hantavirus carries a case-fatality rate up to 38% and rare person-to-person transmission potential in certain strains, with passengers dispersed across Argentina, Cape Verde, Spain, and beyond, heightening escalation risks despite no sustained spread observed. No Level 3 notices are active per CDC data, but persistent Level 2 alerts for meningococcal disease in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, yellow fever in Venezuela, chikungunya, poliovirus, and mpox in West Africa signal ongoing threats; weekly FluView and surveillance updates could tip trajectories toward Level 3 criteria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 3 (“Reconsider Nonessential Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A Level 3 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A Level 3 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Jan 19, 2026, 3:15 PM ET
Обсяг
$117,078Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 19, 2026, 3:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 3 (“Reconsider Nonessential Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A Level 3 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus implies a 75.5% probability of the CDC issuing a Level 3 Travel Health Notice—recommending travelers reconsider nonessential trips due to high disease risk—for any outbreak by December 31, 2026, driven primarily by the escalating hantavirus outbreak linked to the MV Hondius cruise ship, where 11 cases (eight confirmed, three suspected) and three deaths prompted a CDC Emergency Operations Center Level 3 activation around May 8. Hantavirus carries a case-fatality rate up to 38% and rare person-to-person transmission potential in certain strains, with passengers dispersed across Argentina, Cape Verde, Spain, and beyond, heightening escalation risks despite no sustained spread observed. No Level 3 notices are active per CDC data, but persistent Level 2 alerts for meningococcal disease in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, yellow fever in Venezuela, chikungunya, poliovirus, and mpox in West Africa signal ongoing threats; weekly FluView and surveillance updates could tip trajectories toward Level 3 criteria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 3 (“Reconsider Nonessential Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A Level 3 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A Level 3 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Обсяг
$117,078Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 19, 2026, 3:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus implies a 75.5% probability of the CDC issuing a Level 3 Travel Health Notice—recommending travelers reconsider nonessential trips due to high disease risk—for any outbreak by December 31, 2026, driven primarily by the escalating hantavirus outbreak linked to the MV Hondius cruise ship, where 11 cases (eight confirmed, three suspected) and three deaths prompted a CDC Emergency Operations Center Level 3 activation around May 8. Hantavirus carries a case-fatality rate up to 38% and rare person-to-person transmission potential in certain strains, with passengers dispersed across Argentina, Cape Verde, Spain, and beyond, heightening escalation risks despite no sustained spread observed. No Level 3 notices are active per CDC data, but persistent Level 2 alerts for meningococcal disease in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, yellow fever in Venezuela, chikungunya, poliovirus, and mpox in West Africa signal ongoing threats; weekly FluView and surveillance updates could tip trajectories toward Level 3 criteria.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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