Florida’s 22nd Congressional District Republican primary features a crowded field of self-funded candidates in a race reshaped by recent redistricting, leaving the seat open. Recent polling shows Belinda Keiser, Michael Carbonara, and Casey Askar locked in a statistical tie among likely Republican voters, with more than 40 percent undecided just days before the August 18 contest. Trader pricing on Polymarket reflects this balance, with the top three candidates holding the clearest leads while others trail. A Club for Growth endorsement of Carbonara and associated advertising have added momentum for one contender, yet the absence of a unifying high-profile endorsement and comparable campaign resources among frontrunners have kept probabilities clustered. Late shifts in turnout, attack ad effectiveness, or final-week polling could widen gaps before ballots are cast.