The Republican primary for Florida’s 22nd Congressional District remains highly competitive heading into the August 18 vote, with self-funded campaigns by Michael Carbonara, Belinda Keiser, and Casey Askar driving a tight contest. Recent polling showed the three leading contenders statistically tied among likely Republican voters, with more than 40 percent undecided and limited name recognition across the field. Club for Growth’s recent endorsement of Carbonara and its ads targeting Askar represent the latest external intervention, while the absence of a Trump endorsement has left the race without a clear frontrunner signal. Traders’ near-even pricing between Carbonara and Keiser reflects this uncertainty, with separation likely to emerge only after final vote tallies or late shifts in turnout among the district’s key Republican blocs.