Recent National Meteorological Service guidance and ensemble models project a daytime maximum of 13–15°C in Buenos Aires on June 17, driven by a weakening high-pressure ridge allowing modest warm advection from the north while increasing low-level cloud cover limits solar heating. Subtle differences in forecast boundary-layer mixing and the exact timing of any weak frontal passage create the tight clustering between 14°C and 15°C implied probabilities. Historical June climatology shows average highs near 15°C, but persistent cool maritime air and below-normal 850 hPa temperatures this week have kept recent daily maxima 1–2°C lower. Traders are watching the next model runs and surface observations for any late-day warming that could push the official maximum across the 15°C threshold.