Recent Hong Kong Observatory forecasts indicate a daytime maximum near 27°C on May 18 under typical early-summer transition conditions, with moderate southwesterly flow and variable cloud cover that restricts peak solar heating and keeps temperatures from climbing higher. This aligns with climatological norms for mid-May, when average highs hover around 28°C amid rising humidity and the onset of the southwest monsoon. Model consensus from regional guidance shows limited disagreement, with no strong frontal systems or clear skies expected to push readings to 29°C or above, while the narrow spread of trader-implied probabilities between 26°C and 28°C reflects uncertainty in exact peak timing and localized urban heat effects. Updated observational data and evening forecast revisions will be key for final resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Hong Kong on May 18?
27°C 54%
26°C 33%
28°C 11%
25°C 3.8%
$86,830 Обс.
$86,830 Обс.
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
4%
26°C
33%
27°C
54%
28°C
11%
29°C
3%
30°C
1%
31°C or higher
<1%
27°C 54%
26°C 33%
28°C 11%
25°C 3.8%
$86,830 Обс.
$86,830 Обс.
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
4%
26°C
33%
27°C
54%
28°C
11%
29°C
3%
30°C
1%
31°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Ринок відкрито: May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Recent Hong Kong Observatory forecasts indicate a daytime maximum near 27°C on May 18 under typical early-summer transition conditions, with moderate southwesterly flow and variable cloud cover that restricts peak solar heating and keeps temperatures from climbing higher. This aligns with climatological norms for mid-May, when average highs hover around 28°C amid rising humidity and the onset of the southwest monsoon. Model consensus from regional guidance shows limited disagreement, with no strong frontal systems or clear skies expected to push readings to 29°C or above, while the narrow spread of trader-implied probabilities between 26°C and 28°C reflects uncertainty in exact peak timing and localized urban heat effects. Updated observational data and evening forecast revisions will be key for final resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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