Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 19°C in Madrid on May 5, 2026, driven by the latest Agencia Estatal de Meteorología (AEMET) forecast specifying a daily maximum of 19°C under partly cloudy skies, light northerly winds at 10 km/h, and zero precipitation risk. This positioning reflects model consensus from ECMWF and GFS runs showing a stable continental air mass with cool advection from the north, keeping conditions below seasonal May averages of 21–23°C. Observations at Adolfo Suárez Madrid–Barajas Airport—the market's resolution source via Wunderground—align with this cap as the afternoon peak passes without intensifying solar heating. Realistic challenges include abrupt wind shifts allowing downslope warming or prolonged clear skies, though hourly guidance indicates negligible odds as evening approaches.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Madrid on May 5?
Highest temperature in Madrid on May 5?
19°C 100.0%
14°C or below <1%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$114,634 Обс.
$114,634 Обс.
May 5, 2026
14°C or below
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
Yes
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C or higher
No
19°C 100.0%
14°C or below <1%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$114,634 Обс.
$114,634 Обс.
May 5, 2026
14°C or below
$704 Обс.
No
15°C
$4,494 Обс.
No
16°C
$5,785 Обс.
No
17°C
$7,588 Обс.
No
18°C
$10,393 Обс.
No
19°C
$13,723 Обс.
Yes
20°C
$12,687 Обс.
No
21°C
$12,597 Обс.
No
22°C
$8,065 Обс.
No
23°C
$19,353 Обс.
No
24°C or higher
$19,244 Обс.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 19°C in Madrid on May 5, 2026, driven by the latest Agencia Estatal de Meteorología (AEMET) forecast specifying a daily maximum of 19°C under partly cloudy skies, light northerly winds at 10 km/h, and zero precipitation risk. This positioning reflects model consensus from ECMWF and GFS runs showing a stable continental air mass with cool advection from the north, keeping conditions below seasonal May averages of 21–23°C. Observations at Adolfo Suárez Madrid–Barajas Airport—the market's resolution source via Wunderground—align with this cap as the afternoon peak passes without intensifying solar heating. Realistic challenges include abrupt wind shifts allowing downslope warming or prolonged clear skies, though hourly guidance indicates negligible odds as evening approaches.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Ринок відкрито: May 3, 2026, 12:33 AM ET
Обсяг
$114,634Дата завершення
May 5, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 3, 2026, 12:33 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: Yes
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 19°C in Madrid on May 5, 2026, driven by the latest Agencia Estatal de Meteorología (AEMET) forecast specifying a daily maximum of 19°C under partly cloudy skies, light northerly winds at 10 km/h, and zero precipitation risk. This positioning reflects model consensus from ECMWF and GFS runs showing a stable continental air mass with cool advection from the north, keeping conditions below seasonal May averages of 21–23°C. Observations at Adolfo Suárez Madrid–Barajas Airport—the market's resolution source via Wunderground—align with this cap as the afternoon peak passes without intensifying solar heating. Realistic challenges include abrupt wind shifts allowing downslope warming or prolonged clear skies, though hourly guidance indicates negligible odds as evening approaches.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Обсяг
$114,634Дата завершення
May 5, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 3, 2026, 12:33 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: Yes
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: Yes
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 19°C in Madrid on May 5, 2026, driven by the latest Agencia Estatal de Meteorología (AEMET) forecast specifying a daily maximum of 19°C under partly cloudy skies, light northerly winds at 10 km/h, and zero precipitation risk. This positioning reflects model consensus from ECMWF and GFS runs showing a stable continental air mass with cool advection from the north, keeping conditions below seasonal May averages of 21–23°C. Observations at Adolfo Suárez Madrid–Barajas Airport—the market's resolution source via Wunderground—align with this cap as the afternoon peak passes without intensifying solar heating. Realistic challenges include abrupt wind shifts allowing downslope warming or prolonged clear skies, though hourly guidance indicates negligible odds as evening approaches.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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