Persistent heavy rains and extensive cloud cover from the southwest monsoon, reinforced by the recent passage of Tropical Cyclone Luis, have sharply limited solar heating across Metro Manila on August 5. Official PAGASA guidance and current observations show daytime maxima held near 28–29 °C, well below the 30–31 °C August climatological average, with widespread moderate-to-heavy rainfall continuing through the afternoon. Traders have therefore assigned a 98 % implied probability to a 28 °C high, reflecting the strong observational consensus that additional insolation would be needed to breach 29 °C. A rapid clearing of skies before peak heating or a localized drop in rainfall intensity remain the principal scenarios that could realistically shift the recorded maximum upward.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Manila on August 5?
Highest temperature in Manila on August 5?
28°C 97%
30°C 2.2%
29°C 1.2%
31°C <1%
$20,496 Обс.
$20,496 Обс.
Aug 5, 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
97%
29°C
1%
30°C
2%
31°C
<1%
32°C or higher
<1%
28°C 97%
30°C 2.2%
29°C 1.2%
31°C <1%
$20,496 Обс.
$20,496 Обс.
Aug 5, 2026
22°C or below
$938 Обс.
<1%
23°C
$267 Обс.
<1%
24°C
$434 Обс.
<1%
25°C
$440 Обс.
<1%
26°C
$1,625 Обс.
<1%
27°C
$2,596 Обс.
<1%
28°C
$2,963 Обс.
97%
29°C
$4,178 Обс.
1%
30°C
$2,590 Обс.
2%
31°C
$2,631 Обс.
<1%
32°C or higher
$1,834 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent heavy rains and extensive cloud cover from the southwest monsoon, reinforced by the recent passage of Tropical Cyclone Luis, have sharply limited solar heating across Metro Manila on August 5. Official PAGASA guidance and current observations show daytime maxima held near 28–29 °C, well below the 30–31 °C August climatological average, with widespread moderate-to-heavy rainfall continuing through the afternoon. Traders have therefore assigned a 98 % implied probability to a 28 °C high, reflecting the strong observational consensus that additional insolation would be needed to breach 29 °C. A rapid clearing of skies before peak heating or a localized drop in rainfall intensity remain the principal scenarios that could realistically shift the recorded maximum upward.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 3, 2026, 12:09 AM ET
Обсяг
$20,496Дата завершення
Aug 5, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 3, 2026, 12:09 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent heavy rains and extensive cloud cover from the southwest monsoon, reinforced by the recent passage of Tropical Cyclone Luis, have sharply limited solar heating across Metro Manila on August 5. Official PAGASA guidance and current observations show daytime maxima held near 28–29 °C, well below the 30–31 °C August climatological average, with widespread moderate-to-heavy rainfall continuing through the afternoon. Traders have therefore assigned a 98 % implied probability to a 28 °C high, reflecting the strong observational consensus that additional insolation would be needed to breach 29 °C. A rapid clearing of skies before peak heating or a localized drop in rainfall intensity remain the principal scenarios that could realistically shift the recorded maximum upward.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$20,496Дата завершення
Aug 5, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 3, 2026, 12:09 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent heavy rains and extensive cloud cover from the southwest monsoon, reinforced by the recent passage of Tropical Cyclone Luis, have sharply limited solar heating across Metro Manila on August 5. Official PAGASA guidance and current observations show daytime maxima held near 28–29 °C, well below the 30–31 °C August climatological average, with widespread moderate-to-heavy rainfall continuing through the afternoon. Traders have therefore assigned a 98 % implied probability to a 28 °C high, reflecting the strong observational consensus that additional insolation would be needed to breach 29 °C. A rapid clearing of skies before peak heating or a localized drop in rainfall intensity remain the principal scenarios that could realistically shift the recorded maximum upward.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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