Official measurements from Meteo-France stations confirmed a maximum temperature of 16°C in Paris on May 16, driving the market's 100% implied probability for that exact outcome. Stable high-pressure systems over western Europe combined with moderate northwesterly flow kept daytime heating modest, well below the typical mid-May average of 18–20°C for the Paris region. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model runs showed tight consensus on this range in the final 48 hours, with no significant warm-air advection or urban heat-island amplification under clear skies and light winds. While post-event data revisions remain theoretically possible, the alignment of surface observations and reanalysis products leaves little room for adjustment, underscoring why traders assigned near-certainty to the 16°C threshold.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Paris on May 16?
Highest temperature in Paris on May 16?
16°C 100.0%
10°C or below <1%
11°C <1%
12°C <1%
$157,461 Обс.
$157,461 Обс.
May 16, 2026
10°C or below
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
Yes
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C or higher
No
16°C 100.0%
10°C or below <1%
11°C <1%
12°C <1%
$157,461 Обс.
$157,461 Обс.
May 16, 2026
10°C or below
$9,076 Обс.
No
11°C
$2,417 Обс.
No
12°C
$2,594 Обс.
No
13°C
$7,895 Обс.
No
14°C
$36,194 Обс.
No
15°C
$17,823 Обс.
No
16°C
$30,493 Обс.
Yes
17°C
$32,675 Обс.
No
18°C
$11,371 Обс.
No
19°C
$3,864 Обс.
No
20°C or higher
$3,059 Обс.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official measurements from Meteo-France stations confirmed a maximum temperature of 16°C in Paris on May 16, driving the market's 100% implied probability for that exact outcome. Stable high-pressure systems over western Europe combined with moderate northwesterly flow kept daytime heating modest, well below the typical mid-May average of 18–20°C for the Paris region. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model runs showed tight consensus on this range in the final 48 hours, with no significant warm-air advection or urban heat-island amplification under clear skies and light winds. While post-event data revisions remain theoretically possible, the alignment of surface observations and reanalysis products leaves little room for adjustment, underscoring why traders assigned near-certainty to the 16°C threshold.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Ринок відкрито: May 14, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Обсяг
$157,461Дата завершення
May 16, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 14, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official measurements from Meteo-France stations confirmed a maximum temperature of 16°C in Paris on May 16, driving the market's 100% implied probability for that exact outcome. Stable high-pressure systems over western Europe combined with moderate northwesterly flow kept daytime heating modest, well below the typical mid-May average of 18–20°C for the Paris region. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model runs showed tight consensus on this range in the final 48 hours, with no significant warm-air advection or urban heat-island amplification under clear skies and light winds. While post-event data revisions remain theoretically possible, the alignment of surface observations and reanalysis products leaves little room for adjustment, underscoring why traders assigned near-certainty to the 16°C threshold.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Обсяг
$157,461Дата завершення
May 16, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 14, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
Official measurements from Meteo-France stations confirmed a maximum temperature of 16°C in Paris on May 16, driving the market's 100% implied probability for that exact outcome. Stable high-pressure systems over western Europe combined with moderate northwesterly flow kept daytime heating modest, well below the typical mid-May average of 18–20°C for the Paris region. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model runs showed tight consensus on this range in the final 48 hours, with no significant warm-air advection or urban heat-island amplification under clear skies and light winds. While post-event data revisions remain theoretically possible, the alignment of surface observations and reanalysis products leaves little room for adjustment, underscoring why traders assigned near-certainty to the 16°C threshold.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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