Trump’s approval rating has declined steadily through 2026 amid the ongoing military conflict with Iran, rising U.S. casualties, and renewed disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz that have pushed average gas prices back to $4 per gallon. Recent polling aggregates show approval hovering in the low-to-mid 30s with net ratings at or near record lows for the second term, driven by voter dissatisfaction with economic conditions and foreign policy execution. Midterm elections scheduled for November 2026 represent the next major inflection point that could amplify or mitigate downward pressure depending on legislative outcomes and any diplomatic developments. Traders monitoring the lowest point reached this year focus on whether sustained conflict costs or domestic economic indicators produce further erosion before year-end.