Diplomatic negotiations between the United States and Iran continue to stall over Tehran's uranium enrichment program, with Iranian officials insisting on their right to enrich while rejecting permanent cessation or extended moratoriums demanded by Washington. Recent proposals from Tehran have focused on ending the current conflict, lifting sanctions, and reopening the Strait of Hormuz first, explicitly postponing detailed nuclear discussions—including any halt to enrichment—to later phases. No public statement or bilateral accord has emerged committing Iran to end enrichment activities by the approaching May 31 deadline, despite indirect talks mediated through Oman and Pakistan. This sustained impasse underpins the strong market consensus against an agreement materializing in time. Late-stage breakthroughs, such as a revised counteroffer addressing stockpile dilution or verification, or direct high-level intervention, remain the primary factors that could still shift the trajectory before resolution.