Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs indicate overnight lows in the mid- to upper 70s for Austin on August 26 under persistent high pressure, consistent with late-summer climatology near 75°F. Trader emphasis on the 71°F-or-below bin at 47% implied probability likely stems from uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing, dewpoint trends, and any subtle steering changes that could allow slightly cooler air advection or clearer radiational cooling than current deterministic forecasts suggest. Scattered shower chances noted in extended outlooks add minor variability to minimum temperatures without altering the overall hot pattern. Upcoming model updates and official NWS briefings will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLowest temperature in Austin on August 26?
Lowest temperature in Austin on August 26?
82-83°F 48%
71°F or below 46%
72-73°F 27%
74-75°F 27%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 26, 2026
71°F or below
46%
72-73°F
27%
74-75°F
27%
76-77°F
27%
78-79°F
25%
80-81°F
25%
82-83°F
48%
84-85°F
2%
86-87°F
9%
88-89°F
1%
90°F or higher
23%
82-83°F 48%
71°F or below 46%
72-73°F 27%
74-75°F 27%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 26, 2026
71°F or below
$0 Обс.
46%
72-73°F
$0 Обс.
27%
74-75°F
$0 Обс.
27%
76-77°F
$0 Обс.
27%
78-79°F
$0 Обс.
25%
80-81°F
$0 Обс.
25%
82-83°F
$5 Обс.
48%
84-85°F
$5 Обс.
2%
86-87°F
$5 Обс.
9%
88-89°F
$5 Обс.
1%
90°F or higher
$5 Обс.
23%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs indicate overnight lows in the mid- to upper 70s for Austin on August 26 under persistent high pressure, consistent with late-summer climatology near 75°F. Trader emphasis on the 71°F-or-below bin at 47% implied probability likely stems from uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing, dewpoint trends, and any subtle steering changes that could allow slightly cooler air advection or clearer radiational cooling than current deterministic forecasts suggest. Scattered shower chances noted in extended outlooks add minor variability to minimum temperatures without altering the overall hot pattern. Upcoming model updates and official NWS briefings will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 24, 2026, 9:30 PM ET
Обсяг
$25Дата завершення
Aug 26, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 24, 2026, 9:30 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs indicate overnight lows in the mid- to upper 70s for Austin on August 26 under persistent high pressure, consistent with late-summer climatology near 75°F. Trader emphasis on the 71°F-or-below bin at 47% implied probability likely stems from uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing, dewpoint trends, and any subtle steering changes that could allow slightly cooler air advection or clearer radiational cooling than current deterministic forecasts suggest. Scattered shower chances noted in extended outlooks add minor variability to minimum temperatures without altering the overall hot pattern. Upcoming model updates and official NWS briefings will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$25Дата завершення
Aug 26, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 24, 2026, 9:30 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs indicate overnight lows in the mid- to upper 70s for Austin on August 26 under persistent high pressure, consistent with late-summer climatology near 75°F. Trader emphasis on the 71°F-or-below bin at 47% implied probability likely stems from uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing, dewpoint trends, and any subtle steering changes that could allow slightly cooler air advection or clearer radiational cooling than current deterministic forecasts suggest. Scattered shower chances noted in extended outlooks add minor variability to minimum temperatures without altering the overall hot pattern. Upcoming model updates and official NWS briefings will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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