Hong Kong's typical June climatology, reinforced by the Hong Kong Observatory's above-normal temperature outlook for June–August 2026, has driven near-certain trader consensus on a 26°C low for June 12. Daily model guidance and historical baselines place overnight minima at 26–27°C under subtropical high pressure and moderate humidity, with no cold-air outbreaks or typhoon influences observed in the preceding period. This alignment of seasonal forecasts, real-time observations, and lack of anomalous cloud cover or marine-layer effects has produced the 99.5% implied probability. Resolution could shift only if post-event verification reveals localized rain-cooled pockets or an unexpected boundary-layer change that drops readings below the threshold, though current data indicate negligible likelihood.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLowest temperature in Hong Kong on June 12?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on June 12?
26°C 99.5%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$42,932 Обс.
$42,932 Обс.
Jun 12, 2026
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
100%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C or higher
<1%
26°C 99.5%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$42,932 Обс.
$42,932 Обс.
Jun 12, 2026
21°C or below
$848 Обс.
<1%
22°C
$944 Обс.
<1%
23°C
$2,444 Обс.
<1%
24°C
$2,932 Обс.
<1%
25°C
$6,758 Обс.
<1%
26°C
$21,873 Обс.
100%
27°C
$4,426 Обс.
<1%
28°C
$908 Обс.
<1%
29°C
$710 Обс.
<1%
30°C
$420 Обс.
<1%
31°C or higher
$668 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 12 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Hong Kong's typical June climatology, reinforced by the Hong Kong Observatory's above-normal temperature outlook for June–August 2026, has driven near-certain trader consensus on a 26°C low for June 12. Daily model guidance and historical baselines place overnight minima at 26–27°C under subtropical high pressure and moderate humidity, with no cold-air outbreaks or typhoon influences observed in the preceding period. This alignment of seasonal forecasts, real-time observations, and lack of anomalous cloud cover or marine-layer effects has produced the 99.5% implied probability. Resolution could shift only if post-event verification reveals localized rain-cooled pockets or an unexpected boundary-layer change that drops readings below the threshold, though current data indicate negligible likelihood.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 12 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Ринок відкрито: Jun 10, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Обсяг
$42,932Дата завершення
Jun 12, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jun 10, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 12 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Hong Kong's typical June climatology, reinforced by the Hong Kong Observatory's above-normal temperature outlook for June–August 2026, has driven near-certain trader consensus on a 26°C low for June 12. Daily model guidance and historical baselines place overnight minima at 26–27°C under subtropical high pressure and moderate humidity, with no cold-air outbreaks or typhoon influences observed in the preceding period. This alignment of seasonal forecasts, real-time observations, and lack of anomalous cloud cover or marine-layer effects has produced the 99.5% implied probability. Resolution could shift only if post-event verification reveals localized rain-cooled pockets or an unexpected boundary-layer change that drops readings below the threshold, though current data indicate negligible likelihood.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 12 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Обсяг
$42,932Дата завершення
Jun 12, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jun 10, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Hong Kong's typical June climatology, reinforced by the Hong Kong Observatory's above-normal temperature outlook for June–August 2026, has driven near-certain trader consensus on a 26°C low for June 12. Daily model guidance and historical baselines place overnight minima at 26–27°C under subtropical high pressure and moderate humidity, with no cold-air outbreaks or typhoon influences observed in the preceding period. This alignment of seasonal forecasts, real-time observations, and lack of anomalous cloud cover or marine-layer effects has produced the 99.5% implied probability. Resolution could shift only if post-event verification reveals localized rain-cooled pockets or an unexpected boundary-layer change that drops readings below the threshold, though current data indicate negligible likelihood.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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