Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to a 26–28°C minimum in Hong Kong on June 14 because recent forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and global models converge on overnight lows near 26°C under persistent cloud cover and northeasterly flow. These conditions limit radiational cooling while typical June humidity above 85% keeps surface temperatures elevated. Historical climatology places the average June minimum at 26–27°C, providing a narrow baseline that explains why 27°C leads at 37.5% and why outcomes outside 25–28°C remain below 10%. Updated model runs and any late-day observations could still shift resolution within the final hours.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLowest temperature in Hong Kong on June 14?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on June 14?
26°C 45%
28°C 34.9%
27°C 29%
25°C 9%
$20,299 Обс.
$20,299 Обс.
Jun 14, 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
3%
25°C
9%
26°C
32%
27°C
38%
28°C
27%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C or higher
<1%
26°C 45%
28°C 34.9%
27°C 29%
25°C 9%
$20,299 Обс.
$20,299 Обс.
Jun 14, 2026
22°C or below
$1,291 Обс.
<1%
23°C
$1,615 Обс.
<1%
24°C
$1,134 Обс.
3%
25°C
$740 Обс.
9%
26°C
$1,655 Обс.
32%
27°C
$1,155 Обс.
38%
28°C
$5,200 Обс.
27%
29°C
$6,240 Обс.
<1%
30°C
$505 Обс.
<1%
31°C
$462 Обс.
<1%
32°C or higher
$1,755 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 14 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to a 26–28°C minimum in Hong Kong on June 14 because recent forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and global models converge on overnight lows near 26°C under persistent cloud cover and northeasterly flow. These conditions limit radiational cooling while typical June humidity above 85% keeps surface temperatures elevated. Historical climatology places the average June minimum at 26–27°C, providing a narrow baseline that explains why 27°C leads at 37.5% and why outcomes outside 25–28°C remain below 10%. Updated model runs and any late-day observations could still shift resolution within the final hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 14 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Ринок відкрито: Jun 12, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Обсяг
$20,299Дата завершення
Jun 14, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jun 12, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 14 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to a 26–28°C minimum in Hong Kong on June 14 because recent forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and global models converge on overnight lows near 26°C under persistent cloud cover and northeasterly flow. These conditions limit radiational cooling while typical June humidity above 85% keeps surface temperatures elevated. Historical climatology places the average June minimum at 26–27°C, providing a narrow baseline that explains why 27°C leads at 37.5% and why outcomes outside 25–28°C remain below 10%. Updated model runs and any late-day observations could still shift resolution within the final hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 14 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Обсяг
$20,299Дата завершення
Jun 14, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jun 12, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to a 26–28°C minimum in Hong Kong on June 14 because recent forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and global models converge on overnight lows near 26°C under persistent cloud cover and northeasterly flow. These conditions limit radiational cooling while typical June humidity above 85% keeps surface temperatures elevated. Historical climatology places the average June minimum at 26–27°C, providing a narrow baseline that explains why 27°C leads at 37.5% and why outcomes outside 25–28°C remain below 10%. Updated model runs and any late-day observations could still shift resolution within the final hours.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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