Traders have converged overwhelmingly on 14°C as Seoul’s lowest temperature for May 17, driven by real-time observations from the Korea Meteorological Administration showing overnight radiative cooling under clear skies and light winds. Ensemble forecast models align on a minimum near this value, consistent with typical mid-May climatology where Seoul’s average daily low ranges 13–15°C. Current surface pressure patterns and dew-point readings further reinforce the expected nighttime dip without indications of anomalous warming or cooling. While urban heat-island effects or minor measurement timing variations could theoretically nudge the official reading by one degree, the tight clustering of verified station data and model consensus leaves scant probability for outcomes outside 14°C.