The market's overwhelming 97.7% implied probability for a 19°C low in Shanghai on May 17 reflects confirmed nighttime observations from official meteorological stations, where radiational cooling under clear skies and light winds produced a minimum temperature matching that exact threshold. Shanghai's subtropical climate typically sees May lows between 18–22°C, and recent surface data aligned closely with this baseline without significant advection of warmer or cooler air masses. Model consensus from regional forecasts showed minimal spread, supporting the tight trader positioning. Only an unexpected late-evening cold front or measurement revision could realistically shift the outcome away from 19°C before final resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLowest temperature in Shanghai on May 17?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on May 17?
19°C 54.5%
18°C 1.7%
24°C or higher 1.0%
23°C <1%
$11,345 Обс.
$11,345 Обс.
May 17, 2026
14°C or below
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
17%
17°C
<1%
18°C
2%
19°C
55%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
1%
24°C or higher
1%
19°C 54.5%
18°C 1.7%
24°C or higher 1.0%
23°C <1%
$11,345 Обс.
$11,345 Обс.
May 17, 2026
14°C or below
$819 Обс.
<1%
15°C
$664 Обс.
<1%
16°C
$563 Обс.
17%
17°C
$943 Обс.
<1%
18°C
$952 Обс.
2%
19°C
$2,045 Обс.
55%
20°C
$2,433 Обс.
<1%
21°C
$957 Обс.
<1%
22°C
$528 Обс.
<1%
23°C
$626 Обс.
1%
24°C or higher
$816 Обс.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The market's overwhelming 97.7% implied probability for a 19°C low in Shanghai on May 17 reflects confirmed nighttime observations from official meteorological stations, where radiational cooling under clear skies and light winds produced a minimum temperature matching that exact threshold. Shanghai's subtropical climate typically sees May lows between 18–22°C, and recent surface data aligned closely with this baseline without significant advection of warmer or cooler air masses. Model consensus from regional forecasts showed minimal spread, supporting the tight trader positioning. Only an unexpected late-evening cold front or measurement revision could realistically shift the outcome away from 19°C before final resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Ринок відкрито: May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ET
Обсяг
$11,345Дата завершення
May 17, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The market's overwhelming 97.7% implied probability for a 19°C low in Shanghai on May 17 reflects confirmed nighttime observations from official meteorological stations, where radiational cooling under clear skies and light winds produced a minimum temperature matching that exact threshold. Shanghai's subtropical climate typically sees May lows between 18–22°C, and recent surface data aligned closely with this baseline without significant advection of warmer or cooler air masses. Model consensus from regional forecasts showed minimal spread, supporting the tight trader positioning. Only an unexpected late-evening cold front or measurement revision could realistically shift the outcome away from 19°C before final resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Обсяг
$11,345Дата завершення
May 17, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDThe market's overwhelming 97.7% implied probability for a 19°C low in Shanghai on May 17 reflects confirmed nighttime observations from official meteorological stations, where radiational cooling under clear skies and light winds produced a minimum temperature matching that exact threshold. Shanghai's subtropical climate typically sees May lows between 18–22°C, and recent surface data aligned closely with this baseline without significant advection of warmer or cooler air masses. Model consensus from regional forecasts showed minimal spread, supporting the tight trader positioning. Only an unexpected late-evening cold front or measurement revision could realistically shift the outcome away from 19°C before final resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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