**Stable late-summer Mediterranean conditions position a 23–25°C daily minimum as the most probable outcome for Tel Aviv on September 5, 2026, aligning with the market’s leading 24°C contract at 41.5% implied probability.** Multiple forecast models (including detailed hourly runs from sources like Yr.no and WindBorne) show overnight lows bottoming out near 23–24°C in the pre-dawn hours under clear skies, light westerly flow, and high pressure, with dew points around 20–22°C supporting modest radiative cooling but limited by the warm coastal sea surface. This consensus explains why probabilities cluster tightly around 24°C while cooler outcomes (20°C or below at 28%) reflect residual model uncertainty or potential for slightly stronger nocturnal cooling if winds weaken further. Warmer bins (30°C+) capture the smaller chance of a higher minimum if daytime heat lingers or clouds increase, though current guidance shows negligible precipitation risk and steady 4–6 m/s winds that favor the central range. No major synoptic shifts have occurred in the past 48 hours; forecasts remain consistent with typical early-September climatology for the region, where minima rarely drop below 22°C without an unusual northerly surge. Updated model runs or the next Israeli Meteorological Service briefing could refine these odds ahead of resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLowest temperature in Tel Aviv on September 5?
Lowest temperature in Tel Aviv on September 5?
30°C or higher 53%
20°C or below 51%
28°C 44%
26°C 39%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 5, 2026
20°C or below
51%
21°C
14%
22°C
24%
23°C
26%
24°C
34%
25°C
18%
26°C
39%
27°C
14%
28°C
44%
29°C
2%
30°C or higher
53%
30°C or higher 53%
20°C or below 51%
28°C 44%
26°C 39%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 5, 2026
20°C or below
$0 Обс.
51%
21°C
$36 Обс.
14%
22°C
$25 Обс.
24%
23°C
$25 Обс.
26%
24°C
$39 Обс.
34%
25°C
$39 Обс.
18%
26°C
$0 Обс.
39%
27°C
$0 Обс.
14%
28°C
$0 Обс.
44%
29°C
$0 Обс.
2%
30°C or higher
$0 Обс.
53%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Stable late-summer Mediterranean conditions position a 23–25°C daily minimum as the most probable outcome for Tel Aviv on September 5, 2026, aligning with the market’s leading 24°C contract at 41.5% implied probability.** Multiple forecast models (including detailed hourly runs from sources like Yr.no and WindBorne) show overnight lows bottoming out near 23–24°C in the pre-dawn hours under clear skies, light westerly flow, and high pressure, with dew points around 20–22°C supporting modest radiative cooling but limited by the warm coastal sea surface.
This consensus explains why probabilities cluster tightly around 24°C while cooler outcomes (20°C or below at 28%) reflect residual model uncertainty or potential for slightly stronger nocturnal cooling if winds weaken further. Warmer bins (30°C+) capture the smaller chance of a higher minimum if daytime heat lingers or clouds increase, though current guidance shows negligible precipitation risk and steady 4–6 m/s winds that favor the central range.
No major synoptic shifts have occurred in the past 48 hours; forecasts remain consistent with typical early-September climatology for the region, where minima rarely drop below 22°C without an unusual northerly surge. Updated model runs or the next Israeli Meteorological Service briefing could refine these odds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 3, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Обсяг
$164Дата завершення
Sep 5, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 3, 2026, 12:29 AM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Stable late-summer Mediterranean conditions position a 23–25°C daily minimum as the most probable outcome for Tel Aviv on September 5, 2026, aligning with the market’s leading 24°C contract at 41.5% implied probability.** Multiple forecast models (including detailed hourly runs from sources like Yr.no and WindBorne) show overnight lows bottoming out near 23–24°C in the pre-dawn hours under clear skies, light westerly flow, and high pressure, with dew points around 20–22°C supporting modest radiative cooling but limited by the warm coastal sea surface.
This consensus explains why probabilities cluster tightly around 24°C while cooler outcomes (20°C or below at 28%) reflect residual model uncertainty or potential for slightly stronger nocturnal cooling if winds weaken further. Warmer bins (30°C+) capture the smaller chance of a higher minimum if daytime heat lingers or clouds increase, though current guidance shows negligible precipitation risk and steady 4–6 m/s winds that favor the central range.
No major synoptic shifts have occurred in the past 48 hours; forecasts remain consistent with typical early-September climatology for the region, where minima rarely drop below 22°C without an unusual northerly surge. Updated model runs or the next Israeli Meteorological Service briefing could refine these odds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$164Дата завершення
Sep 5, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 3, 2026, 12:29 AM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...**Stable late-summer Mediterranean conditions position a 23–25°C daily minimum as the most probable outcome for Tel Aviv on September 5, 2026, aligning with the market’s leading 24°C contract at 41.5% implied probability.** Multiple forecast models (including detailed hourly runs from sources like Yr.no and WindBorne) show overnight lows bottoming out near 23–24°C in the pre-dawn hours under clear skies, light westerly flow, and high pressure, with dew points around 20–22°C supporting modest radiative cooling but limited by the warm coastal sea surface. This consensus explains why probabilities cluster tightly around 24°C while cooler outcomes (20°C or below at 28%) reflect residual model uncertainty or potential for slightly stronger nocturnal cooling if winds weaken further. Warmer bins (30°C+) capture the smaller chance of a higher minimum if daytime heat lingers or clouds increase, though current guidance shows negligible precipitation risk and steady 4–6 m/s winds that favor the central range. No major synoptic shifts have occurred in the past 48 hours; forecasts remain consistent with typical early-September climatology for the region, where minima rarely drop below 22°C without an unusual northerly surge. Updated model runs or the next Israeli Meteorological Service briefing could refine these odds ahead of resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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