Imelda Castro Castro leads trader consensus at 42.5% for the 2027 Sinaloa gubernatorial election, followed by María Teresa Guerra Ochoa at 24.5%, with other listed contenders well below 10%. Morena’s dominance in the state makes its internal nomination process the decisive factor, where Castro, a sitting senator, holds an edge in recent preference surveys amid the party’s push for female candidates in multiple 2027 races. Guerra, president of the Sinaloa Congress and aligned with incumbent Rubén Rocha, remains a viable alternative if gender-parity agreements or local alliances shift. Persistent cartel-related violence and security challenges add uncertainty to any frontrunner’s prospects. Upcoming internal polls, formal candidate selection, and potential endorsements could widen gaps before the general election.