The below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season forecast, driven by a strong El Niño increasing vertical wind shear and suppressing intensification, underpins the 88.5% market-implied probability against any Category 5 U.S. landfall before 2027. NOAA's August update projects just 0-2 major hurricanes (Category 3+) for the full season amid only 2-6 total hurricanes expected, consistent with the basin's quiet start of just three weak tropical storms and zero hurricanes through mid-August. Category 5 status on the Saffir-Simpson scale requires sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, an intensity achieved infrequently even in active years and with only four historical U.S. mainland landfalls on record. Peak-season conditions through September offer limited opportunity for rapid intensification before the window closes.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоWill any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
12% шанс
$139,401 Обс.
$139,401 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
12% шанс
$139,401 Обс.
$139,401 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.The below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season forecast, driven by a strong El Niño increasing vertical wind shear and suppressing intensification, underpins the 88.5% market-implied probability against any Category 5 U.S. landfall before 2027. NOAA's August update projects just 0-2 major hurricanes (Category 3+) for the full season amid only 2-6 total hurricanes expected, consistent with the basin's quiet start of just three weak tropical storms and zero hurricanes through mid-August. Category 5 status on the Saffir-Simpson scale requires sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, an intensity achieved infrequently even in active years and with only four historical U.S. mainland landfalls on record. Peak-season conditions through September offer limited opportunity for rapid intensification before the window closes.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Ринок відкрито: Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
Обсяг
$139,401Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.The below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season forecast, driven by a strong El Niño increasing vertical wind shear and suppressing intensification, underpins the 88.5% market-implied probability against any Category 5 U.S. landfall before 2027. NOAA's August update projects just 0-2 major hurricanes (Category 3+) for the full season amid only 2-6 total hurricanes expected, consistent with the basin's quiet start of just three weak tropical storms and zero hurricanes through mid-August. Category 5 status on the Saffir-Simpson scale requires sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, an intensity achieved infrequently even in active years and with only four historical U.S. mainland landfalls on record. Peak-season conditions through September offer limited opportunity for rapid intensification before the window closes.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Обсяг
$139,401Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season forecast, driven by a strong El Niño increasing vertical wind shear and suppressing intensification, underpins the 88.5% market-implied probability against any Category 5 U.S. landfall before 2027. NOAA's August update projects just 0-2 major hurricanes (Category 3+) for the full season amid only 2-6 total hurricanes expected, consistent with the basin's quiet start of just three weak tropical storms and zero hurricanes through mid-August. Category 5 status on the Saffir-Simpson scale requires sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, an intensity achieved infrequently even in active years and with only four historical U.S. mainland landfalls on record. Peak-season conditions through September offer limited opportunity for rapid intensification before the window closes.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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