No bolide event exceeding 5 kilotons TNT-equivalent has occurred in the first 4.5 months of 2026, keeping the market-implied probability of “No” near 62–71%. NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies fireball database and Sentry risk list show only sub-kiloton detections, with the largest reported event (March 17 over Ohio) releasing just 0.25 kt, consistent with the historical global rate of 0.2–0.5 such impacts per year from undetected meter-scale NEOs. Ongoing infrasound and satellite networks have not flagged any objects capable of producing 5 kt yields, while recent close approaches such as asteroid 2026 JH2 remain well below impact thresholds. Traders therefore price the residual chance of an undetected strike in the remaining months at roughly 29–38%.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật5kt meteor strike in 2026?
5kt meteor strike in 2026?
$300,653 KL.
$300,653 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
$300,653 KL.
$300,653 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No bolide event exceeding 5 kilotons TNT-equivalent has occurred in the first 4.5 months of 2026, keeping the market-implied probability of “No” near 62–71%. NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies fireball database and Sentry risk list show only sub-kiloton detections, with the largest reported event (March 17 over Ohio) releasing just 0.25 kt, consistent with the historical global rate of 0.2–0.5 such impacts per year from undetected meter-scale NEOs. Ongoing infrasound and satellite networks have not flagged any objects capable of producing 5 kt yields, while recent close approaches such as asteroid 2026 JH2 remain well below impact thresholds. Traders therefore price the residual chance of an undetected strike in the remaining months at roughly 29–38%.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Thị trường mở: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
Khối lượng
$300,653Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No bolide event exceeding 5 kilotons TNT-equivalent has occurred in the first 4.5 months of 2026, keeping the market-implied probability of “No” near 62–71%. NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies fireball database and Sentry risk list show only sub-kiloton detections, with the largest reported event (March 17 over Ohio) releasing just 0.25 kt, consistent with the historical global rate of 0.2–0.5 such impacts per year from undetected meter-scale NEOs. Ongoing infrasound and satellite networks have not flagged any objects capable of producing 5 kt yields, while recent close approaches such as asteroid 2026 JH2 remain well below impact thresholds. Traders therefore price the residual chance of an undetected strike in the remaining months at roughly 29–38%.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Khối lượng
$300,653Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...No bolide event exceeding 5 kilotons TNT-equivalent has occurred in the first 4.5 months of 2026, keeping the market-implied probability of “No” near 62–71%. NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies fireball database and Sentry risk list show only sub-kiloton detections, with the largest reported event (March 17 over Ohio) releasing just 0.25 kt, consistent with the historical global rate of 0.2–0.5 such impacts per year from undetected meter-scale NEOs. Ongoing infrasound and satellite networks have not flagged any objects capable of producing 5 kt yields, while recent close approaches such as asteroid 2026 JH2 remain well below impact thresholds. Traders therefore price the residual chance of an undetected strike in the remaining months at roughly 29–38%.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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