NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies reports no known asteroids or comets on collision courses capable of a 5 kt airburst through December 2026, anchoring trader consensus around a 27% implied Yes probability. Comprehensive surveys of near-Earth objects continue to identify only small, non-threatening bodies that produce occasional fireballs below this energy threshold, consistent with historical rates of roughly one such event every few years globally. Recent 2026 fireball activity, including multiple March events, has raised short-term awareness but aligns with normal variability rather than signaling elevated risk. With the year more than halfway complete and no new high-probability detections emerging from ongoing monitoring, the market reflects strong scientific confidence in a non-impact outcome while acknowledging residual uncertainty from undetected small objects.